Objective The security of natural gas supply is vital for the stable development of the national economy. Developing a scientific evaluation system for the security resilience of China’s natural gas system assists to comprehensively examine its risk resistance to external shocks, playing a crucial role in ensuring energy security and promoting sustainable industry chain development.
Methods Drawing on the characteristics of China’s natural gas industry chain, a systematic evaluation framework for the security resilience of the natural gas system was established. First, an evaluation indicator system was developed encompassing three key dimensions—resistance & defense capability, recovery & adaptation capability, and transformation & renewal capability—along with seven secondary and twenty-four tertiary indicators. Second, a comprehensive evaluation model integrating combination weighting, TOPSIS, and grey relational analysis was constructed. The combination weighting approach incorporated the expert scoring method, the improved entropy weight method, and the difference degree analysis method to scientifically calculate the weights of the indicator system. Finally, a multi-level “system-dimension-factor” resilience impact analysis model, based on the improved TOPSIS method and the obstacle degree model, enabled multi-dimensional and in-depth analysis of system resilience indicators.
Results From 2010 to 2023, the security resilience of China’s natural gas system remained within the 0.4 to 0.6 range, exhibiting an overall W-shaped trajectory. The resistance & defense capability showed a fluctuating decline, while the recovery & adaptation capability and the transformation & renewal capability demonstrated positive trends. Key factors enhancing the security resilience of the system included the degree of external dependence and annual increases in proven reserves. With the development of China’s natural gas production, supply, storage, and sales system, the focus for strengthening security resilience has shifted—from reliance on external conditions to diversified supply, from passive responses to market fluctuations to proactive infrastructure development, and from labor-intensive investment to high-quality growth.
Conclusion Suggestions are put forward to continuously increase China’s upstream natural gas exploration and development efforts, increase scientific research investment in the natural gas field, improve international trade and infrastructure construction, and optimize energy consumption structure, with a view to improving the security resilience of China’s natural gas system.
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