Impact of international geopolitical situation on China’s natural gas supply and demand

Objective Amid frequent global geopolitical risks, the Ukraine Crisis, sanctions against Russia, Europe’s accelerated shift from Russian gas, the expansion of LNG capacity in several countries, and shipping fluctuations have collectively reshaped the global natural gas market. As a major energy consumer, China’s supply-demand balance for natural gas is increasingly influenced by the international market. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the effects of international geopolitical factors on the security, cost, and structure of China’s natural gas supply and demand, and to propose effective countermeasures.

Methods An in-depth analysis of the global natural gas market status in 2024 and major international political events in 2025 was conducted, with key variables such as the Ukraine Crisis, international sanctions, and competition among host countries of resources examined to construct an analytical framework of “geopolitical event–supply and demand–price–Chinese market”. The impact of global geopolitical trends on China’s natural gas market was analyzed using comparative statistics and scenario research methods.

Results In 2024, global natural gas demand hit a record high of 4.29×10¹² m³, driven mainly by emerging economies. LNG supply tightened due to project delays and sanctions, intensifying regional competition. Between 2021 and 2024, the EU’s natural gas demand declined by approximately 19％, with renewables accounting for about 47％ of its power mix. Russia’s “Pivot to the East” policy failed to offset its market loss in Europe, while Qatar’s low-cost capacity expansion constrained competitors’ market shares. China remains highly dependent on external natural gas supplies, facing uncertainties from Central Asia and the Arctic shipping routes, and the rising Asian premium has increased spot LNG purchase costs.

Conclusion China should pursue a strategy of diversifying imports while steadily increasing domestic production, securing resources through a mix of long-term contracts and flexible spot purchases. Accelerating the development of gas storage facilities and receiving terminal clusters will enhance the peak-shaving system, with gas storage as the core, supported by LNG and pipeline networks. Market-oriented reforms of the natural gas pricing mechanism and strengthened cross-regional allocation are essential. Additionally, improving the national natural gas emergency reserve will bolster the market’s resilience and risk resistance.