Spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of the global petroleum trade dependency network

Objective This study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution and multidimensional driving mechanisms of the global petroleum trade dependency network from 2013 to 2023, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation and decision-making support for China’s development of a resilient and diversified energy supply system.

Methods Based on global petroleum trade data from 2013 to 2023 obtained from the United Nations Comtrade Database, a global petroleum trade network was constructed. The overall evolution of the network structure, node centrality dynamics, and the mechanisms driving the spatio-temporal evolution of the global petroleum trade dependency network were systematically analyzed using complex network analysis and the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM).

Results A continuous decrease in the overall density of the global petroleum trade network was observed, indicating insufficient structural connectivity and increased vulnerability. Meanwhile, a significant rise in the average clustering coefficient and a reduction in average path length were noted, suggesting that the formation of regional trade alliances enhanced local trade efficiency. Analysis of node influence revealed that the United States’ dominant position in trade scale and path control was consolidated through the shale technology revolution. Although China’s share in trade flow declined, its key structural role in the network was maintained by strengthening re-export and hub functions. The TERGM further identified three core driving mechanisms: technological innovation weakened the constraint of geographical distance and promoted network multipolarization; extreme events (such as geopolitical conflicts and the pandemic) accelerated the formation of regional closed-loop systems; and institutional collaboration (such as regional trade agreements) exerted a significantly greater influence than geographical proximity, emerging as a key exogenous factor shaping trade relations.

Conclusion The global petroleum trade network exhibits strong regional adaptability and path reconstruction amid overall sparsification and local clustering. Therefore, China’s future energy policy should integrate technological innovation, institutional collaboration, and reserve systems. By leveraging structural advantages, engaging in energy trade rule-making, and enhancing dynamic monitoring and emergency response, the resilience and security of the energy system can be systematically strengthened.