Research on Security Resilience Evaluation of China's Natural Gas System

Natural gas serves as a crucial pillar in China's energy transition and achievement of "dual carbon" goals, with its supply security directly impacting the stable development of the national economy. Scientifically constructing a natural gas system security resilience evaluation framework helps comprehensively reveal China's natural gas supply's risk resistance capabilities when facing external shocks, which has significant theoretical and practical importance for ensuring energy security and promoting sustainable development of the industrial chain. Based on the characteristics of China's natural gas industry chain system, this research establishes a natural gas system security resilience evaluation index system centered on three dimensions: resistance and defense capability, recovery and adaptation capability, and transformation and renewal capability. A comprehensive evaluation model combining weighted assignment-TOPSIS-grey relational analysis and a system-dimension-factor analysis framework was constructed to analyze the security resilience of China's natural gas system from 2010 to 2023. Results show that the overall security resilience of China's natural gas system during 2010-2023 exhibited a "W-shaped" evolution pattern, with resistance and defense capability showing a fluctuating downward trend, while recovery and adaptation capability and transformation and renewal capability both demonstrated positive trends. External dependency ratio and annual newly proven reserves are identified as key factors for enhancing natural gas system security resilience. The key to improving natural gas system security resilience is shifting from external environment dependency to diversified supply, from passive market fluctuation to proactive infrastructure capacity building, and from labor-intensive input to high-quality development. Based on these findings, the research proposes countermeasures including continuously strengthening domestic upstream exploration and development, increasing investment in technological research and development, reinforcing infrastructure weaknesses, and optimizing energy consumption structure.