Statistical Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Failure Accidents and Multi-factor Interaction Analysis

【Purpose】 This study aims to explore the causes and prevention strategies of natural gas pipeline failure accidents, providing theoretical support for enhancing pipeline safety management.【Methods】 Based on pipeline accident data from the U.S. PHMSA, European EGIG, Canadian CER, and China, we systematically reviewed classification methods and influencing factors of natural gas pipeline failure causes. Statistical analysis, case studies, and multi-factor coupling simulations were employed to investigate interaction mechanisms among various factors and their impacts on pipeline failures.【Results】 Failure causes vary across regions, primarily involving material/equipment defects, corrosion, and third-party damage. Accident rates have significantly declined in various countries due to technological advancements and improved management, yet aging pipelines remain a challenge. Natural gas pipeline failures result from the combined effects of technical, managerial, and environmental factors. Temporally, accidents follow a "bathtub curve" pattern, while spatially, they are influenced by geographical conditions, pipeline design parameters, and socio-economic activities.【Conclusions】 Effective prevention and control of pipeline failures require comprehensive consideration of multi-factor interactions. Targeted, multi-layered safety management strategies can reduce accident rates, enhance overall pipeline safety, and promote sustainable development in the natural gas industry.