Quantitative analysis method for causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents based on 24Model

In order to analyze the logical relationship among the causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents for effective prevention and control, a 24Model-based quantitative analysis method was put forward. Firstly, the causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents were identified based on the hierarchical structure of 24Model and its causal factor identification procedure. Then, the comprehensive influence relation matrix and accessibility matrix of causal factors were established by the method of Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) integrating with Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), which is improved by the grey system theory. On this basis, the causal factors were ranked and the interaction between the causal factors was clarified. Next, the driving force and dependence of each causal factor were calculated by the Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) method, so as to determine their attribute categories. Finally, case study was performed based on the "7·4" accident occurred in Songyuan, Jilin province. The results show that the objective root of the accident lies in the poor supervision of local government agencies, while the factors, such as failure to implement the responsibility of safety subject and inadequate understanding of safety input, are the core subjective factors. The grey DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method combined with 24Model could accurately and quantitatively explore the causing mechanism and evolution law of the repair and rescue accidents of gas pipelines, providing reference for provide reference for gas companies, outsourcing units and government departments to jointly formulate accident prevention and control.