Vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks based on risk theory

At present, the analysis of natural gas pipeline network safety mainly focuses on the risk assessment, reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. Because of the different analysis perspectives of the three methods, the results of identifying the key components are also different. In this study, by combining the risk theory and the vulnerability analysis, the risk-vulnerability analysis method was developed, which identifies the key components of the pipeline networks from the three perspectives of pipeline operating status, transmission performance and network characteristics. Definitely, the key components are identified according to the vulnerability that is the product of the importance and risk values of the components. Therein, the risk value is obtained by multiplying the failure probability with the consequence severity of the indicators that is calculated with the risk-preferred utility function, and the importance is calculated according to the formula starting from the ideas for vulnerability analysis. Moreover, the vulnerability of the natural gas pipeline network in Zhejiang Province was analyzed in this way, and the results indicate that: This method does not ignore the influence of the components with low failure probability and serious consequences on the gas supply capacity of the pipeline network while considering the probability of the frequent occurrence of hazardous events, so that the key components of the natural gas pipeline network can be identified more comprehensively and effectively, further guaranteeing the safe operation of pipeline networks.