Assessment technology of multi-scenario disasters derived from oil storage and transportation facilities

For the failure of oil storage and transportation facilities may endanger the surrounding public safety, it is necessary to conduct quantitative assessment for the derived disasters under multiple scenarios so as to effectively control the adverse impact resulted from the accidents of oil storage and transportation facilities. Meanwhile, research should also be performed for the consequence assessment system of derived disasters. Herein, the differences between the common and the serious accidents were analyzed, and the derived disasters of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities were defined to comprehensively identify the probability and consequences of disasters. In addition, an assessment model of derived disasters based on the sensibility of the disaster-inducing environment was put forward from the three aspects of the derived disaster system, the disaster-causing mechanism and the disaster-inducing environment. A case study was carried out to a disaster occurred in the densely-populated and environmental sensitive areas. Specifically, the failure probability of the oil storage and transportation facilities and the sensitivity of the disaster-inducing environment in the areas after the fire caused by the pipeline leakage were calculated with the Bayesian network using the derived disaster assessment model. The results show that the derived disaster assessment system with comprehensive consideration to the disaster frequency and consequences can not only characterize the degree of loss as a result of multi-scenario disasters, but also reflect the disaster characteristics of accidents of the storage and transportation facilities, which further provides reference to the development of safety measures of the pipelines and facilities for oil storage and transportation, as well as the emergency management and the planning of emergent resources.