Forecast on daily gas load based on the accumulative effect of temperature in winter: A case study of Xi'an

In order to ensure the steady and orderly gas supply to the residents and reduce the risk of gas pipeline in operation, it is necessary to accurately forecast the short-term load of city gas. In this paper, the relationship between the temperature in winter and the daily gas load in Xi'an is discussed. It is found that, under different temperatures, the accumulative effect of temperature shows variable strength and also has different influences on the daily gas load. Accordingly, the temperature correction formula based on the accumulative coefficient k is proposed, which considers the influences of such factors as forecasted daily average temperature, lasting days of low temperature, and temperature difference in three days before the forecast. In this way, the correlation between daily gas load and temperature is improved greatly. Practical forecast shows high-precision results of gas load after the forecasted daily temperature is corrected by the accumulative coefficient. The average relative error between the forecasted and actual gas load reduces from 7.78% before correction to 4.63% after correction.