Quantitative risk analysis on domino effect in petrochemical production areas

For purpose of better quantitative risk analysis on petrochemical production areas, the definition of domino effect and the evaluation process were introduced. Then, based on the researches on domino effect in China and abroad, analysis was made on the model which was applied in risk assessment to calculate the probability of device damage caused by heat radiation, overpressure and fragment. It is indicated that the model doesn't include all influential factors completely, debasing the accuracy of assessment. Accordingly, the subjects to be concerned in the future work were proposed. Casualty probability is calculated with the frequency of domino scenarios, which can provide the support for accidental rescue. As a supplement to risk assessment in China, analysis on domino effect should be considered and included in the specifications gradually. According to the evaluation results, proper measures will be taken, so as to avoid domino effect by interrupting the propagation of initial accidents.