Failure probability of offshore oil pipelines and its failure consequence weight

In order to meet the requirements to supervise scientifically offshore oil pipelines in China, it is necessary to establish a safety evaluation system taking account of safety and economy on the basis of national situations. In this paper, analytical hierarchy process of system engineering is adopted to analyze quantitatively the non-quantitative events by conducting pairwise comparison on risk factors of hazards of offshore oil pipelines. In this way, subjective judgment is described objectively, and consequently risk issues related with hazards of offshore oil pipelines is simplified. On the basis of long-distance pipeline risk evaluation proposed by Muhlbauer W K, a risk evaluation technology of offshore oil pipelines is introduced to build up models for failure probability of offshore oil pipelines and analytical hierarchy diagrams of failure consequence. This paper presents the flow chart to determine failure probability factors and failure consequence weighting by using analytical hierarchy process, and calculates weights of risk factors at each hierarchy relative to failure probability and failure consequence, so as to provide theoretical basis for safety evaluation and hierarchy analysis of offshore oil pipelines.