Application of GM (1, 1) in comprehensive production efficiency prediction for railway loading, unloading and transportation

Comprehensive production efficiency is an important factor that affects the safe, efficient and economic operationof oil and gas railway loading, unloading and transportation system. In order to predict the comprehensive production efficiency of railway loading, unloading and transportation system, this paper takes the statistical data in annual productionreport of Luoyang Petrochemical Engineering Corporation from 2006 to 2012 as the basic data and sums them up. On thatbasis, this paper builds a gray dynamic model GM (1, 1) and solves the model, then processes the data by regressive reductiontreatment and the grey prediction function is obtained. The annual comprehensive production efficiency from 2013 to 2014was predicted by the predictive function and the accuracy of predictive result was tested which reaches the first rate. In thispaper, the predictive data conclusion of 2013 to 2014 is listed out and the predictive method by GM (1, 1) for reducing errorwithout increasing data length is also proposed. Case study has proved that this method, with simple predictive model andhigh prediction accuracy, is instructive to practical production management.