Demand forecast of China's northern coastal LPG shipping

An investigation shows that regional imbalances in the supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in China results in a shipping demand where LPG is transported from north to south. There are a number of factors that affect China's LPG shipping demand. In this paper, the change trend of China's LPG shipping demand is analyzed by the method combined with quantitative and qualitative analysis, a BP neural network model is built with the input neuron of northern LPG output, southern LPG consumption and LPG imports and the output neuron of "LPG transported from north to south" shipping weight and shipping demand, qualitative analysis is carried out for the other influencing factors that have not been introduced into the model (use of alternative natural gas and use of LPG as chemical raw materials) and then quantitative forecasting results are amended. The results show that China's LPG "LPG transported from north to south" shipping demand will follow a decline trend during the year from 2011 to 2015.