Prediction and evaluation of inlet temperature for stable operation of Aershan-Saihantala Oil Pipeline

Generally, the composition of oil transported with long-distance hot oil pipeline is relatively complicated, and to keep its economic transport temperature, the problem in wax precipitation of oil easily occurs. When the solid precipitation exceeds a certain extent, it will not only increase power consumption greatly, but also seriously threaten the safety of pipeline operation. Therefore, proper prediction on the inlet temperatures of hot oil pipeline maintaining itself stable operation is very important to ensure its safe and economic operation. Based on the recorded operation parameters of Aershan-Saihantala Oil Pipeline from 2008 to 2010, and in combination with Sukhov Temperature Drop Theory, the K, the total heat transfer coefficient of 7 pipeline sections in stable operation periods is calculated on the inverse computation basis, and the K value recommended for different months to relative pipe sections is proposed in order to predict the inlet temperature of the first half-year of 2011 for the pipe sections, and with which to discuss the main reasons for temperature differences produced and the reliability of predicted results. Research results show that the recommended K value obtained from inverse calculation method based on recorded operation parameters of hot oil pipeline can be used to accurately predict the future temperature drop tendency of the pipeline itself, and the credibility for the temperature deviation at －4~4 ℃ is greater than 90%. However, the inlet temperature can be slightly lower than the actual value due to wax precipitation.