Transportation Pressure-based Forecast for the Failure Probability of Corroded Pipeline

Based on the failure pipeline pressure analysis, a limit state function for assessment of failure pipeline is established, and the rule of random variable form is expressed.The analysis and calculation on failure probability of the corroded pipeline are carried out with improved first order and second moment reliability method.An inspection is made to an oil transportation pipeline and a statistical analysis is carried out to corrosive defect data, operation parameters and the performance of pipe materials.The failure probability of the entire pipeline is computed in accordance with the proposed mathematical model.The computed results of failure probabilities are compared with the suggested target failure probability and pipeline sections for further repairing and monitoring are determine.