任佳维. 天然气利用项目关键影响因素及重要性评价[J]. 油气储运,2025,44(4):1−7.
引用本文: 任佳维. 天然气利用项目关键影响因素及重要性评价[J]. 油气储运,2025,44(4):1−7.
REN Jiawei. Key influencing factors and importance evaluation for natural gas utilization projects[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2025, 44(4): 1−7.
Citation: REN Jiawei. Key influencing factors and importance evaluation for natural gas utilization projects[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2025, 44(4): 1−7.

天然气利用项目关键影响因素及重要性评价

Key influencing factors and importance evaluation for natural gas utilization projects

  • 摘要:
    目的 天然气利用项目开发的影响因素多、周期长,缺乏有效方法判断影响项目的关键因素,导致新项目开发无法突出重点、成功率低。
    方法 为了提高天然气项目开发的准确率,构建了一套天然气利用项目关键影响因素评价方法:基于菲尔德法,筛选出12个影响天然气利用项目开发的主要因素;采用层次分析法与熵权法分别计算一级因素、二级因素的权重,再通过线性加权计算综合权重;基于关键因素权重对项目开展综合评价,建立了项目重要性综合评价方法。
    结果 权重排名2~5的二级影响因素天然气需求量、购销价差、用气波动情况及气量增速均分布在“市场情况”内,表明一级因素中“市场情况”对天然气利用项目的影响最大;“投资回收期”在二级影响因素中的权重最高,表明二级因素中项目的资金回收速度对天然气利用项目影响最大。在参与评价的项目中,应集中资源优先开发重点项目及综合评价权重值大的项目,其中天然气管输项目与气电项目被确定为重点项目,其他项目为一般项目,根据权重可以确定各个项目的优先开发顺序。
    结论 新建立的评价方法提高了评价指标权重分配的准确性及可靠性,以其科学性及实用性为项目开发者提供了一套有效的评价方法,有利于促进天然气利用领域项目更加高效地投资与开发。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The development of natural gas utilization projects is is subject to numerous factors and entails long cycles. The absence of effective methods to identify key factors impacting project development leads to an inability to prioritize critical areas, ultimately resulting in low success rates for new projects.
    Methods To enhance the accuracy of developing natural gas utilization projects, a set of evaluation methods was established to identify key influencing factors. Utilizing the Field Method, twelve major factors affecting the development of natural gas utilization projects were identified. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method were employed to calculate the weights of first-level and second-level factors, respectively. Comprehensive weights were derived through linear weighting calculations. Comprehensive project evaluations were conducted, considering the weights of their key factors, which led to the establishment of a comprehensive method for evaluating project importance.
    Results All influencing factors with weights ranging from 2 to 5 were categorized under the first-level factor of “market conditions”, proving that it has the greatest influence of this factor on natural gas utilization projects among factors at this level. Among the second-level factors, “investment payback periods” exhibited the highest weights, indicating that capital recovery rates have the greatest impact on these projects. It is recommended to concentrate resources on prioritizing the development of key projects and those with high comprehensive evaluation weight values among the projects under consideration. Specifically, in addition to natural gas pipeline transportation projects and gas-fired power projects identified as key projects, the priority sequence for developing other general projects can be determined based on their weight values.
    Conclusion The proposed evaluation methodology, characterized by enhanced accuracy and reliability in the weight distribution of evaluation indicators, offers a set of effective evaluation methods for project developers. This scientific and practical approach facilitates more efficient investment and development in the field of natural gas utilization projects.

     

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