Abstract:
Objective The development of natural gas utilization projects is is subject to numerous factors and entails long cycles. The absence of effective methods to identify key factors impacting project development leads to an inability to prioritize critical areas, ultimately resulting in low success rates for new projects.
Methods To enhance the accuracy of developing natural gas utilization projects, a set of evaluation methods was established to identify key influencing factors. Utilizing the Field Method, twelve major factors affecting the development of natural gas utilization projects were identified. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method were employed to calculate the weights of first-level and second-level factors, respectively. Comprehensive weights were derived through linear weighting calculations. Comprehensive project evaluations were conducted, considering the weights of their key factors, which led to the establishment of a comprehensive method for evaluating project importance.
Results All influencing factors with weights ranging from 2 to 5 were categorized under the first-level factor of “market conditions”, proving that it has the greatest influence of this factor on natural gas utilization projects among factors at this level. Among the second-level factors, “investment payback periods” exhibited the highest weights, indicating that capital recovery rates have the greatest impact on these projects. It is recommended to concentrate resources on prioritizing the development of key projects and those with high comprehensive evaluation weight values among the projects under consideration. Specifically, in addition to natural gas pipeline transportation projects and gas-fired power projects identified as key projects, the priority sequence for developing other general projects can be determined based on their weight values.
Conclusion The proposed evaluation methodology, characterized by enhanced accuracy and reliability in the weight distribution of evaluation indicators, offers a set of effective evaluation methods for project developers. This scientific and practical approach facilitates more efficient investment and development in the field of natural gas utilization projects.