骆正山,陈思思,高懿琼. 海洋环境下天然气集输管道内腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运,2025,x(x):1−9.
引用本文: 骆正山,陈思思,高懿琼. 海洋环境下天然气集输管道内腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运,2025,x(x):1−9.
LUO Zhengshan, CHEN Sisi, GAO Yiqiong. Internal corrosion rate prediction of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in marine environments[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2025, x(x): 1−9.
Citation: LUO Zhengshan, CHEN Sisi, GAO Yiqiong. Internal corrosion rate prediction of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in marine environments[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2025, x(x): 1−9.

海洋环境下天然气集输管道内腐蚀速率预测

Internal corrosion rate prediction of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in marine environments

  • 摘要:
    目的 为了提高天然气集输管道在海洋环境下内腐蚀速率预测的准确性,评估管道剩余强度,制定防腐措施,维护管道的安全运行。提出了一种基于核主成分分析法(Kernel Principal Component Analysis, KPCA)、改进猎人猎物算法(Improved Hunt-Prey Optimizer, IHPO)与核极限学习机(Kernel Extreme Learning Machine, KELM)的腐蚀速率预测模型。
    方法 以南海某天然气集输管道内腐蚀数据为例,首先利用核主成分分析(KPCA)进行腐蚀影响因素特征提取,消除冗余数据对预测结果的影响,确定输入变量;其次采用Circle映射进行种群初始化,使用柯西变异增强猎人猎物算法(Hunter-Prey Optimization, HPO)的局部开发能力,通过反向学习提高HPO算法的全局搜索能力,用IHPO优化KELM的正则化系数C和核函数参数γ;最后使用Matlab软件对腐蚀速率进行预测,并对比KPCA-IHPO-KELM模型与KELM、KPCA-KELM、KPCA-HPO-KELM模型的预测结果。
    结果 结果表明:案例中初始影响因素较多,使用KPCA算法共提取出3个主成分,在保留原始数据主要特征的情况下,有效消除冗余数据影响,降低了预测误差;通过IHPO确定KELM模型的最优正则化系数C和核函数参数γ分别为3.83、0.01,此时模型预测效果最佳;经特征提取和算法改进后的KPCA-IHPO-KELM模型的预测结果与实际腐蚀速率更加接近,性能更优,其均方根误差、平均绝对误差和决定系数分别为0.024 5、0.020 4和0.997 6,与其他三种模型相比预测精度最高、平均误差最小。
    结论 提出的KPCA-IHPO-KELM腐蚀速率组合预测模型具有良好的预测性能,可为后续海洋环境下天然气集输管道的内腐蚀速率预测提供新的方法,为海洋环境下天然气集输管道的运维管理和风险预警提供参考依据。(图4,表6,参24)

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To improve the accuracy of internal corrosion rate predictions for natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in marine environments, evaluate their residual strength, develop anti-corrosion measures, and ensure their safe operation, a corrosion rate prediction model based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA), Improved Hunt-Prey Optimizer (IHPO), and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM) was proposed.
    Methods Using the internal corrosion data from a natural gas gathering and transportation pipeline in the South China Sea, KPCA was first employed to extract features from corrosion-influencing factors, eliminate the impact of redundant data on the prediction results, and determine the input variables. Second, population initialization was performed using Circle mapping. Cauchy mutation was applied to enhance the local development capability of the Hunter-Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm, while opposition-based learning was utilized to improve its global search capability. The Improved Hunt-Prey Optimizer (IHPO) was then employed to optimize the regularization coefficient (C) and the kernel function parameter (γ) of the KELM. Finally, corrosion rate predictions were made using Matlab, and the results of the KPCA-IHPO-KELM model were compared with those of the KELM, KPCA-KELM, and KPCA-HPO-KELM models.
    Results The results indicated that numerous initial influencing factors were present in the case. A total of three principal components were extracted using the KPCA algorithm, which effectively eliminated the influence of redundant data while preserving the main features of the original dataset, thus reducing prediction error. The optimal regularization coefficient C and kernel function parameter γ for the KELM model, determined by IHPO, were 3.83 and 0.01, respectively, at which the model achieved the best prediction performance. After feature extraction and algorithm improvement, the predictions of the KPCA-IHPO-KELM model closely aligned with the actual corrosion rate, demonstrating superior performance. Its root mean square error, mean absolute error, and determination coefficient were 0.0245, 0.0204, and 0.9976, respectively. Compared to the other three models, it achieved the highest prediction accuracy and the lowest mean error.
    Conclusion The proposed KPCA-IHPO-KELM combined prediction model for corrosion rate exhibits excellent prediction performance. It offers a new approach for predicting the internal corrosion rate of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines in marine environments, providing valuable insights for their operation and maintenance management, and risk early-warning systems.

     

/

返回文章
返回