Objective As a key component of the natural gas supply chain, natural gas pipeline networks link the production, trading, storage, and sales of natural gas. Establishing target reliability for these pipeline networks is a prerequisite for enhancing their operation regarding safety, stability, and efficiency. However, prior research on the reliability of natural gas pipeline networks has primarily focused on reliability indicators and the development of calculation methods related to gas supply reliability. Few studies have addressed the establishment of target reliability, often overlooking the gas demands and characteristics of users.

Methods This paper presents a method for establishing the target reliability of natural gas pipeline networks based on user satisfaction. First, a user satisfaction indicator system is developed, which focuses on several factors: supply volume, supply pressure, gas quality, supply strategy, emergency response, and pricing. Consequently, gas supply reliability is defined as user satisfaction that considers only supply volume and pressure. Second, a user classification method based on supply guarantee attributes is introduced, categorizing natural gas users into four groups: full guarantee, tolerance to limited pressure reduction, tolerance to pressure reduction, and tolerance to disruption. The weights of user satisfaction indicators for different user groups are calculated using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a correlation function is established between gas supply reliability in pipeline networks and user satisfaction. Finally, utilizing historical data on user gas demand and supply, the weight of the first-level user satisfaction indicator is calculated and the target reliability for natural gas pipeline networks is determined taking into account the target user satisfaction.

Results The proposed method for determining the target reliability of natural gas pipeline networks was applied to a real-world pipeline network, resulting in target reliability values of 0.9941, 0.9900, and 0.9867 for users in the first three groups, respectively. In contrast to risk-based and economic benefit-based methods, this new approach refines target reliability at the individual user level, fully accounting for user attributes concerning supply guarantee. This alignment with the actual conditions and market requirements of natural gas pipeline networks enhances the feasibility of this method.

Conclusion The proposed method quantitatively evaluates the reliability of gas supply in natural gas pipeline networks, providing a basis for scientific decision-making regarding pipeline networks and offering technical support for the practical application of reliability theories in natural gas pipeline network systems.