孙守业. 预测学原理在管道输油企业中的应用[J]. 油气储运, 1988, 7(2): 38-45, 59.
引用本文: 孙守业. 预测学原理在管道输油企业中的应用[J]. 油气储运, 1988, 7(2): 38-45, 59.
Sun Shouye. The Application of the Principles of Forecasting in Oil Pipelining Enterprises[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 1988, 7(2): 38-45, 59.
Citation: Sun Shouye. The Application of the Principles of Forecasting in Oil Pipelining Enterprises[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 1988, 7(2): 38-45, 59.

预测学原理在管道输油企业中的应用

The Application of the Principles of Forecasting in Oil Pipelining Enterprises

  • 摘要: 经济预测作为现代管理的方法之一,愈来愈被经济工作者重视,成为一门独立的科学。本文通过预测学原理在长距离输油企业中具体应用的阐述,探求在工业企业中应用预测学的一般步骤、方法和注意事项。文章提出了预测基本指标的概念和建立预测经济指标关系示意图的建议,对确定预测程序和预测组织具有指导意义。文章还指出要站在较高层次上分析企业经济指标变化的长期趋势,宏观地联系自变量因素。在选择预测模型参数时,除要对比各种误差外,还要综合分析该事物本身的发展趋势,以便选取最符合发展趋势的参数。

     

    Abstract: The economic forecasting, one of the modern managerial methods, is getting more and more attention and bas come to be an independant science. The article, by explaining the practical application of the principles of forecasting in cross-country oil pipelining enterrpises, makes an exploring study of the general steps, methods and some notices in application of forecasting. It puts forward the ideas of basic index and the suggestion as to set up the schematic diagram to predict the economic index relationship, which is of instructive significance to the determination of forecasting steps and organizations. It further points out the necessity to stand higher in analysing the long-term inclination of the economic index fluctuation, macroscopically linking the self-variable factors. In selection of the prediction model parameters, it is necessary to generalize the developing trend of the object itself, in addition to making comparison of the various errors, so as to select the parameters closely in conformity with the developing trend.

     

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