王其磊, 程五一, 张丽丽, 戴联双, 张华兵. 管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J]. 油气储运, 2011, 30(7): 494-496. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110711.1014.008
引用本文: 王其磊, 程五一, 张丽丽, 戴联双, 张华兵. 管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J]. 油气储运, 2011, 30(7): 494-496. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110711.1014.008
Wang Qilei, Cheng Wuyi, Zhang Lili, . Quantifying risk assessment technique and case analysis of pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2011, 30(7): 494-496. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110711.1014.008
Citation: Wang Qilei, Cheng Wuyi, Zhang Lili, . Quantifying risk assessment technique and case analysis of pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2011, 30(7): 494-496. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110711.1014.008

管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例

Quantifying risk assessment technique and case analysis of pipeline

  • 摘要: 肯特加强指数量化评价模型是以肯特评分法为基础,综合历史数据、专家经验和概率风险建立的,在管道风险评价中具有显著优势。该模型的基本原理与概率风险评价相似,即“风险值=失效概率×失效后果”,模型中的失效事件或场景基本与肯特评分法相同。计算中由暴露、减缓措施和承受力共同构成失效概率函数,将所有失效机理分为与时间无关和与时间相关两种类型;绝对失效后果用成本损失来表示,其主要计算步骤依次为确定各种泄漏孔径概率,划分危险区域临界距离,确定并统计危险区域内受体的破坏类型和失效概率。实例计算表明,该方法可操作性强,减少了定性指标,是管道量化风险评价技术的有效创新。

     

    Abstract: Qualifying assessment model by Kent enhancing index is based on Kent's scoring method and constructed through integrating historic data, experts'experiences and probabilistic risk, which has prominent advantages in risk assessment for pipelines. The basic theory of the model is similar to that of probabilistic risk assessment, i.e. risk value equals to the arithmetic product of failure probability and failure consequence. The failure events and conditions of the model are generally identical to that of Kent scoring method. The function of failure probability is composed of exposure, delay measures and adaptive capacity. All the failure mechanisms are defined as two types, time dependent and time independent. Absolute failure consequence is expressed with the cost loss. The main calculation steps are sequentially taken as determination of various leakage aperture probabilities, partition of critical distance for danger zone, confirmation and numerical statement of damage type and failure probability of receptors in danger zone. Case calculation indicates that this feasible method can reduce qualitative indexes. It is an effective and innovative model for pipeline quantifying risk assessment technique.

     

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