赵佳丽, 吴长春, 孙伶, 苏迪. 基于最小二乘支持向量机的原油管道能耗预测[J]. 油气储运, 2011, 30(12): 945-948. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110706.1141.003
引用本文: 赵佳丽, 吴长春, 孙伶, 苏迪. 基于最小二乘支持向量机的原油管道能耗预测[J]. 油气储运, 2011, 30(12): 945-948. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110706.1141.003
Zhao Jiali, Wu Changchun, Sun Ling, . Energy consumption prediction of crude oil pipeline based on the least square support vector machine[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2011, 30(12): 945-948. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110706.1141.003
Citation: Zhao Jiali, Wu Changchun, Sun Ling, . Energy consumption prediction of crude oil pipeline based on the least square support vector machine[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2011, 30(12): 945-948. DOI: CNKI:13-1093/TE.20110706.1141.003

基于最小二乘支持向量机的原油管道能耗预测

Energy consumption prediction of crude oil pipeline based on the least square support vector machine

  • 摘要: 根据原油管道耗电量和耗油量的特点,选择径向基核函数,以管道输量为自变量建立了基于最小二乘支持向量机的耗电量和耗油量预测模型。利用该方法预测某原油管道的耗电量和耗油量,结果表明:对耗油量的预测精度较对耗电量的预测精度低,其原因在于耗油量的影响因素相对复杂;利用后验差检验法检验模型精度,结果显示:对耗电量和耗油量的预测精度等级均为“好”。实例应用证明:该方法建模过程简单,预测精度高,可以有效用于原油管道的能耗预测。

     

    Abstract: According to the characteristics of power and oil consumption, an energy consumption model based on the least square support vector machine was established, using the flowrate as the independent variable. In the model, RBF kernel function was chosen. The results of this method showed that the prediction accuracy for oil consumption was lower than power consumption, and the reason was that the influencing factors of oil consumption were more complicated. Posteriori estimation was used to test the prediction accuracy of power and oil consumption by this model, and the results were both "good". An application example showed that the model was simple, and the prediction result was precise. The method can be used to predict the power and oil consumption of crude oil pipeline.

     

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