Abstract:
As global geopolitical risks escalate, China, being a major energy consumer, faces increasing volatility in natural gas supply and demand due to fluctuations in international markets.This study focuses on the profound effects of evolving global geopolitical dynamics on China's natural gas supply-demand system. By analyzing key variables such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international sanctions, and competition among resource-rich countries, it examines their impacts on China's natural gas supply-demand relationship. The study finds that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted the focus of Russian natural gas trade eastward, enhancing pipeline gas supplies to China while increasing risks of over-dependence. Western sanctions have led to a reconfiguration of global LNG resources, forcing China to bear higher import costs in the Eurasian market competition. Qatar, leveraging its cost advantages, is rapidly expanding production capacity, and its policy competition with the EU has prompted adjustments in LNG trade flows, temporarily alleviating China's supply pressure in the short term. Facing the dual challenges of rising external dependence and accelerating energy transition, the study proposes systemic strategies, including building a diversified supply system, enhancing the resilience of storage and transportation infrastructure, and promoting integrated multi-energy development, to provide decision-making support for balancing energy security and low-carbon transition.