马婕, 杨金辉, 杜威. 2025年国际政治新形势下对中国天然气供需影响[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505130261
引用本文: 马婕, 杨金辉, 杜威. 2025年国际政治新形势下对中国天然气供需影响[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505130261
MA Jie, YANG Jinhui, DU Wei. The Effects of the International Political Dynamics in 2025 on China's Natural Gas Market Balance[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505130261
Citation: MA Jie, YANG Jinhui, DU Wei. The Effects of the International Political Dynamics in 2025 on China's Natural Gas Market Balance[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505130261

2025年国际政治新形势下对中国天然气供需影响

The Effects of the International Political Dynamics in 2025 on China's Natural Gas Market Balance

  • 摘要: 随着全球地缘政治风险频发,中国作为能源消费大国,天然气供需受国际市场波动影响加剧。本研究聚焦全球地缘政治格局演变对中国天然气供需体系的深层影响,通过解析俄乌冲突、国际制裁及资源国竞争等关键变量,分析其对中国天然气供需关系影响。研究发现,俄乌冲突推动俄罗斯天然气贸易重心东移,增强对华管道气供应同时,加剧过度依赖潜在风险;西方制裁导致全球LNG资源再配置,迫使中国在欧亚市场博弈中承担更高进口成本;卡塔尔依托成本优势加速产能扩张,其与欧盟政策博弈促使LNG贸易流向调整,短期内缓解中国供应压力。面对对外依存度攀升与能源转型加速的双重挑战,研究提出构建多元化供应体系、强化储运基础设施韧性及推动多能协同发展的系统性策略,为统筹能源安全与低碳转型提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: As global geopolitical risks escalate, China, being a major energy consumer, faces increasing volatility in natural gas supply and demand due to fluctuations in international markets.This study focuses on the profound effects of evolving global geopolitical dynamics on China's natural gas supply-demand system. By analyzing key variables such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international sanctions, and competition among resource-rich countries, it examines their impacts on China's natural gas supply-demand relationship. The study finds that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted the focus of Russian natural gas trade eastward, enhancing pipeline gas supplies to China while increasing risks of over-dependence. Western sanctions have led to a reconfiguration of global LNG resources, forcing China to bear higher import costs in the Eurasian market competition. Qatar, leveraging its cost advantages, is rapidly expanding production capacity, and its policy competition with the EU has prompted adjustments in LNG trade flows, temporarily alleviating China's supply pressure in the short term. Facing the dual challenges of rising external dependence and accelerating energy transition, the study proposes systemic strategies, including building a diversified supply system, enhancing the resilience of storage and transportation infrastructure, and promoting integrated multi-energy development, to provide decision-making support for balancing energy security and low-carbon transition.

     

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