池立勋, 周淑慧, 陈晨, 王军, 梁严. 我国天然气系统安全韧性评价研究[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505070227
引用本文: 池立勋, 周淑慧, 陈晨, 王军, 梁严. 我国天然气系统安全韧性评价研究[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505070227
CHI Lixun, ZHOU Shuhui, CHEN Chen, WANG Jun, LIANG Yan. Research on Security Resilience Evaluation of China's Natural Gas System[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505070227
Citation: CHI Lixun, ZHOU Shuhui, CHEN Chen, WANG Jun, LIANG Yan. Research on Security Resilience Evaluation of China's Natural Gas System[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202505070227

我国天然气系统安全韧性评价研究

Research on Security Resilience Evaluation of China's Natural Gas System

  • 摘要: 天然气作为我国能源转型和实现“双碳”目标的重要支柱,其供应安全关系到国民经济稳定发展。科学构建天然气系统安全韧性评价体系,有助于全面揭示我国天然气供应在遭受外部冲击时的抗风险能力,对保障能源安全、推动产业链可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。结合我国天然气产业链系统特点,构建了以抵抗防御能力、恢复适应能力、变革更新能力三个维度为核心的天然气系统安全韧性评价指标体系,搭建组合赋权-TOPSIS-灰色关联分析综合评价模型和系统-维度-因子分析体系,对2010年-2023年我国天然气系统的安全韧性进行分析。结果表明,2010年-2023年我国天然气系统安全韧性整体呈现“W”型演进,其中抵抗防御能力呈波动下降,恢复适应能力和变革更新能力均呈现向好态势,对外依存度、年新增探明储量等是提升天然气系统安全韧性的关键因子。提升天然气系统安全韧性的关键从外部环境依赖向多元供给转移,从被动性市场波动向主动性基础设施能力建设转移,从人员密集型投入向高质量发展转变。基于研究结果,提出持续加大国内上游勘探开发力度,提升技术研发投入,补强基础设施短板和优化能源消费结构等对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Natural gas serves as a crucial pillar in China's energy transition and achievement of "dual carbon" goals, with its supply security directly impacting the stable development of the national economy. Scientifically constructing a natural gas system security resilience evaluation framework helps comprehensively reveal China's natural gas supply's risk resistance capabilities when facing external shocks, which has significant theoretical and practical importance for ensuring energy security and promoting sustainable development of the industrial chain. Based on the characteristics of China's natural gas industry chain system, this research establishes a natural gas system security resilience evaluation index system centered on three dimensions: resistance and defense capability, recovery and adaptation capability, and transformation and renewal capability. A comprehensive evaluation model combining weighted assignment-TOPSIS-grey relational analysis and a system-dimension-factor analysis framework was constructed to analyze the security resilience of China's natural gas system from 2010 to 2023. Results show that the overall security resilience of China's natural gas system during 2010-2023 exhibited a "W-shaped" evolution pattern, with resistance and defense capability showing a fluctuating downward trend, while recovery and adaptation capability and transformation and renewal capability both demonstrated positive trends. External dependency ratio and annual newly proven reserves are identified as key factors for enhancing natural gas system security resilience. The key to improving natural gas system security resilience is shifting from external environment dependency to diversified supply, from passive market fluctuation to proactive infrastructure capacity building, and from labor-intensive input to high-quality development. Based on these findings, the research proposes countermeasures including continuously strengthening domestic upstream exploration and development, increasing investment in technological research and development, reinforcing infrastructure weaknesses, and optimizing energy consumption structure.

     

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