钱文振, 马晓宇, 李春奇, 贾明贵, 李云飞, 任庆森, 吴亚琴, 崔淦. 天然气管道失效事故统计及多因素耦合分析[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202504130173
引用本文: 钱文振, 马晓宇, 李春奇, 贾明贵, 李云飞, 任庆森, 吴亚琴, 崔淦. 天然气管道失效事故统计及多因素耦合分析[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202504130173
QIAN Wenzhen, MA Xiaoyu, LI Chunqi, JIA Minggui, LI Yunfei, REN Qingsen, WU Yaqin, . Statistical Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Failure Accidents and Multi-factor Interaction Analysis[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202504130173
Citation: QIAN Wenzhen, MA Xiaoyu, LI Chunqi, JIA Minggui, LI Yunfei, REN Qingsen, WU Yaqin, . Statistical Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Failure Accidents and Multi-factor Interaction Analysis[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202504130173

天然气管道失效事故统计及多因素耦合分析

Statistical Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Failure Accidents and Multi-factor Interaction Analysis

  • 摘要: 【目的】探究天然气管道失效事故的成因及防控策略,以期为提升管道安全管理水平提供理论支撑。【方法】基于美国PHMSA、欧洲EGIG、加拿大CER及我国管道事故数据,系统梳理天然气管道失效原因的分类方法及影响因素,运用统计分析、案例剖析及多因素耦合模拟等手段,深入探究各因素间的相互作用关系及其对管道失效的影响机制。【结果】不同地区失效原因各异,主要集中在材料设备、腐蚀、第三方破坏等方面。从事故率变化趋势来看,各国通过技术进步与管理强化使事故率显著下降,但仍面临老龄管道问题。天然气管道失效原因由技术、管理、环境三大因素共同作用引起,事故的发生遵循一定的时间规律和空间规律,时间上呈现“浴盆曲线”的规律,空间上受地理环境、管道设计参数及社会活动等因素的显著影响。【结论】天然气管道失效事故的防控需综合考虑多方面因素及其耦合作用,针对性地制定并实施全方位、多层次的安全管理策略,可有效降低事故发生率,提升管道整体安全性能,促进天然气行业的健康可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: 【Purpose】 This study aims to explore the causes and prevention strategies of natural gas pipeline failure accidents, providing theoretical support for enhancing pipeline safety management.【Methods】 Based on pipeline accident data from the U.S. PHMSA, European EGIG, Canadian CER, and China, we systematically reviewed classification methods and influencing factors of natural gas pipeline failure causes. Statistical analysis, case studies, and multi-factor coupling simulations were employed to investigate interaction mechanisms among various factors and their impacts on pipeline failures.【Results】 Failure causes vary across regions, primarily involving material/equipment defects, corrosion, and third-party damage. Accident rates have significantly declined in various countries due to technological advancements and improved management, yet aging pipelines remain a challenge. Natural gas pipeline failures result from the combined effects of technical, managerial, and environmental factors. Temporally, accidents follow a "bathtub curve" pattern, while spatially, they are influenced by geographical conditions, pipeline design parameters, and socio-economic activities.【Conclusions】 Effective prevention and control of pipeline failures require comprehensive consideration of multi-factor interactions. Targeted, multi-layered safety management strategies can reduce accident rates, enhance overall pipeline safety, and promote sustainable development in the natural gas industry.

     

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