孙慧, 王海滨, 杨雷, 杨安. 基于 CNKI 的天然气安全评价指标体系构建研究综述[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202502200039
引用本文: 孙慧, 王海滨, 杨雷, 杨安. 基于 CNKI 的天然气安全评价指标体系构建研究综述[J]. 油气储运. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202502200039
SUN Hui, WANG Haibin, YANG Lei, YANG An. Research Review on the Construction of Natural Gas Security Evaluation Indicators System: Based on CNKI[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202502200039
Citation: SUN Hui, WANG Haibin, YANG Lei, YANG An. Research Review on the Construction of Natural Gas Security Evaluation Indicators System: Based on CNKI[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.202502200039

基于 CNKI 的天然气安全评价指标体系构建研究综述

Research Review on the Construction of Natural Gas Security Evaluation Indicators System: Based on CNKI

  • 摘要: 天然气安全始终是我国能源安全的重点关切,构建科学合理的评价体系是发现天然气安全短板,提升天然气安全程度的基础。本文基于中国知网CNKI数据库,运用文献计量分析法,综述了国内天然气安全评价指标体系构建的方法论。结果显示:(1)评价天然气安全通常可从国内生产、资源进口、市场需求、价格水平、基础设施、经济社会环境六个维度开展。其中,前三个维度是评价天然气安全的核心。(2)如何选择与天然气安全强相关的指标是构建天然气安全评价指标体系至关重要的一环。尽可能减少主观判断,选择较客观的数学方法已经成为趋势。目前国内天然气安全评价指标的设置和选择仍以间接指标/二次指标为主,对外依存度,天然气消费强度,储采比是使用最多的三个评价指标。(3)确定各评价指标的权重是构建天然气安全评价指标体系最为重要的一步。在早期德尔菲法基础上,引入数学方法或者数学模型已经成为主流研究方法。其中,熵权法和主成分分析法是当前使用较多的方法。(4)构建具有中国特色的,能达到广泛认可的,可以指导行业实践的天然气安全评价指标体系是未来的重点研究方向。

     

    Abstract: Natural gas security has always been a focal concern for China’s energy security. Constructing a scientific and rational evaluation system is fundamental to identifying weaknesses in natural gas security and enhancing its overall resilience. Based on the CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) database, this paper employs bibliometric analysis to review the methodologies for constructing natural gas security evaluation index systems in China. The results reveal the following: (1) Natural gas security evaluation typically encompasses six dimensions: domestic production, resource imports, market demand, price levels, infrastructure, and socio-economic environment. Among these, the first three dimensions are core to evaluating natural gas security. (2) Selecting indicators strongly correlated with natural gas security is critical in constructing the evaluation index system. Minimizing subjective judgment and adopting more objective mathematical methods has become a trend. Currently, the selection of indicators in China still relies predominantly on indirect/secondary metrics, with external dependence, natural gas consumption intensity, and reserve-to-production ratio being the most frequently used indicators.(3) Determining the weights of evaluation indicators is the most crucial step in building the index system. Building on early Delphi methods, the introduction of mathematical methods or models has become mainstream. Among these, the entropy weight method and principal component analysis (PCA) are currently the most widely applied.(4) Future research should prioritize the development of a natural gas security evaluation index system with Chinese characteristics, capable of achieving broad consensus and guiding industry practices.

     

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