Objective With the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy and the rapid development of the new energy system, there is consensus in the industry that China's crude oil consumption is approaching a plateau and will gradually decline. In this context, analyzing the medium- and long-term trends in crude oil demand and identifying the key driving factors are crucial for the steady development of the national crude oil industry, the formulation and evaluation of energy policies, and the advancement of the new energy system.

Methods Using the system dynamics method, a scenario analysis model for China's medium- and long-term crude oil demand was developed, comprising five subsystems: economy, population, crude oil supply, science and technology, and environment. Considering the overall development status and future feasibility of these subsystems, six distinct scenarios were created to simulate China's crude oil consumption demand from 2023 to 2070, including a baseline scenario, a high economic growth scenario, and an energy substitution scenario.

Results Under different development scenarios, the peaking time, peak value and development path of crude oil demand varied slightly, but the overall trends remained consistent. In most scenarios, crude oil demand would peak between 2028 and 2031, entering a plateau period (7.5×10⁸–7.8×10⁸ t) before beginning a gradual decline. By around 2050, the rate of decline would slow down, leading to a new plateau around 2060, with demand estimated at approximately 2×10⁸ t. Prior to 2050, demand for crude oil as fuel would be greater than that for crude oil as feedstock, primarily for use in the transportation sector. After 2050, the demand for crude oil as feedstock would surpass that for crude oil as fuel, establishing it as the dominant consumption attribute. Economic development and investment in science and technology were identified as the primary drivers influencing crude oil demand.

Conclusion To ensure the steady development of China's crude oil industry, the following recommendations are proposed: continually promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, improve crude oil utilization efficiency, accelerate the development of low- and zero-carbon substitutes, encourage clean consumption of crude oil, increase investment in exploration and development, and enhance scientific and technological innovation to support research and development. These measures will help ensure the coordinated and stable advancement of China's social economy, energy transition, and energy supply security.