Objective As China is accelerating its construction of a new energy system, the role of natural gas power generation in supportingthe future natural gas industry and power system is becoming increasingly prominent. However, the industry lacks a consensus on the futuredevelopment space of natural gas power generation. A reasonable assessment of the development space of natural gas power generation willfacilitate the construction of the new power system and the formulation of policies on natural gas power generation.

Methods Based on theanalysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various flexible peak shaving measures such as natural gas power generation, coal powerflexibility transformation, pumped storage, new energy storage, and smart grid, the future development orientation of taking natural gaspower generation industry as a flexibility resource on the power supply side to realize the peak shaving was determined. By applying variousqualitative and quantitative methods such as the Delphi method and the learning curve method, prediction of the installed capacity of renewableenergy power generation in China under different scenarios was carried out. The overall demand for power flexibility resources was obtained.The flexible peak shaving capabilities of coal power flexibility transformation, pumped storage, new energy storage, and other new energystorage technologies in the future were further studied. The future demand space of China's installed capacity of natural gas power generationwas calculated.

Results The forecast results show that China's power system requires approximately 14×10⁸ kW, 27×10⁸–28×10⁸ kW and37×10⁸–40×10⁸ kW of power flexibility resources in 2030, 2040, and 2060 respectively. As one of the power flexibility resources, natural gaspower generation has a gradually expanding demand that is expected to reach approximately 1.6×10⁸ kW, 2.2×10⁸ kW in 2030, and a peak valueof approximately 3×10⁸–4×10⁸ kW in 2050.

Conclusion It is suggested to accurately find the orientation of the natural gas power generation industry, consider the coordinated development of the industry with natural gas consumption and renewable energy, and actively promote theimprovement of market mechanisms, thus reflecting the value of the industry and effectively solving the dilemma of high carbon emissionintensity and low capacities for independent research and development of core equipment.