高良军, 唐义新, 陈亮, 王北福. 原油船海上航行升沉运动Bayes-LSTM预测方法[J]. 油气储运, 2023, 42(11): 1291-1296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.11.009
引用本文: 高良军, 唐义新, 陈亮, 王北福. 原油船海上航行升沉运动Bayes-LSTM预测方法[J]. 油气储运, 2023, 42(11): 1291-1296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.11.009
GAO Liangjun, TANG Yixin, CHEN Liang, WANG Beifu. Bayes-LSTM method for predicting heave movement of crude oil vessels during maritime navigation[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2023, 42(11): 1291-1296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.11.009
Citation: GAO Liangjun, TANG Yixin, CHEN Liang, WANG Beifu. Bayes-LSTM method for predicting heave movement of crude oil vessels during maritime navigation[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2023, 42(11): 1291-1296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.11.009

原油船海上航行升沉运动Bayes-LSTM预测方法

Bayes-LSTM method for predicting heave movement of crude oil vessels during maritime navigation

  • 摘要: 为了更好地预测船舶在海上航行中的升沉运动,提高船舶海上航行与作业安全水平,以10×104 t级原油船为研究对象,利用船舶模型运动过程数值模拟软件STAR CCM+构建其仿真模型,由无液货舱与半载液货舱两种情况及0.5λ、1.0λ、1.5λλ=6.16 m)3种波长组合构成6种工况,获取6组升沉运动数据,并将其以8:2的比例划分为训练集与测试集,利用贝叶斯算法优化后的长短期记忆神经网络(Bayes-LSTM)模型进行模型升沉运动预测,将预测结果与长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型的预测结果进行对比。结果表明:Bayes-LSTM模型比LSTM模型的预测精度最大提高3倍以上,显示出Bayes-LSTM模型对船舶海上航行与作业过程中升沉运动预测的优势。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the prediction accuracy of vessels heave movement during maritime navigation and improve the safety of vessels during maritime navigation and operation, a 10×104 t class crude oil vessel was taken as the research object, and the numerical simulation software STAR CCM+ was employed to build the model simulating the motion of the vessel. Six sets of heave motion data were obtained from six working conditions formed by the combination of two conditions(no-liquid cargo hold and half-loaded liquid cargo hold) and three wavelengths of 0.5 λ, 1.0 λ and 1.5 λ(λ = 6.16 m), and they are divided into a training set and a test set at the ratio of 8:2. The prediction of the model heave movement was conducted through the utilization of the Bayesian Long Short-term Memory Neural Network(Bayes-LSTM)by employing a Bayesian algorithm. The predicted results were then compared with those predicted by the Long Short-term Memory Neural Network(LSTM) model. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of Bayes-LSTM model at its best is more than 3 times higher than that of LSTM model, which demonstrates the advantage of Bayes-LSTM model in predicting the heave movement of vessels during maritime navigation and operation.

     

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