田文才, 傅宗化, 周国峰, 乔伟彪. 基于WT+改进SSA-LSTM模型的短期天然气负荷预测算法[J]. 油气储运, 2023, 42(2): 231-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.02.013
引用本文: 田文才, 傅宗化, 周国峰, 乔伟彪. 基于WT+改进SSA-LSTM模型的短期天然气负荷预测算法[J]. 油气储运, 2023, 42(2): 231-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.02.013
TIAN Wencai, FU Zonghua, ZHOU Guofeng, QIAO Weibiao. Short-term natural gas load forecast algorithm based on WT+ improved SSA-LSTM model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2023, 42(2): 231-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.02.013
Citation: TIAN Wencai, FU Zonghua, ZHOU Guofeng, QIAO Weibiao. Short-term natural gas load forecast algorithm based on WT+ improved SSA-LSTM model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2023, 42(2): 231-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2023.02.013

基于WT+改进SSA-LSTM模型的短期天然气负荷预测算法

Short-term natural gas load forecast algorithm based on WT+ improved SSA-LSTM model

  • 摘要: 为提高天然气负荷的预测精度,提出一种改进麻雀搜索算法(Sparrow Search Algorithm,SSA)与长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)相结合的组合预测模型(即改进SSA-LSTM模型)。先利用Sobol序列产生高质量初始种群,再引入自适应权重和T分布变异以增加麻雀跳出局部最优、提高全局搜索能力,后通过12种测试函数验证改进SSA算法的性能,并将该组合预测模型应用于华北某城市燃气门站的天然气负荷预测。为进一步提高模型预测精度,引入小波变换(Wavelet Transform,WT),通过5种小波(Symlets小波、Coiflets小波、Fejer-Korovkin小波、Haar小波及Discrete-Meyer小波)对天然气负荷数据进行分解,将分解后的数据代入改进SSA-LSTM模型进行训练与预测,并将预测结果进行重构,以MAPE、RMSE、MAE为模型评价指标,结果表明:利用Discrete-Meyer小波7层分解方法的预测准确性最高,达到99.14%,相较于改进SSA-LSTM模型和传统LSTM模型的预测精度分别提高了3.55%、9.31%。该方法可为天然气区域内稳定供应提供参考。

     

    Abstract: A combined forecast model (named as the improved SSA-LSTM) that integrates the improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was proposed to improve the forecast accuracy of natural gas load. In this model, high-quality initial population was produced by Sobol sequence, and then the adaptive weight and T distribution variation were introduced to increase the sparrows to jump out of local optimum and improve the global search capability. Finally, the performance of the improved SSA algorithm was verified by 12 test functions, and the combination forecast model was applied to the natural gas load forecast of a gas gate station in a city in North China. To further improve the forecast accuracy of the model, using Wavelet Transform (WT), the data on natural gas load was decomposed by five wavelets (Symlets wavelet, Coiflets wavelet, Fejer-Korovkin wavelet, Haar wavelet and Discrete-Meyer wavelet), and then put into the improved SSA-LSTM model for training and forecasting. Thus the prediction results were reconstructed and MAPE, RMSE and MAE were selected as the model evaluation indexes. The results show that the 7-level Discrete-Meyer wavelet decomposition method has the best forecast accuracy as high as 99.14%, which is 3.55% higher than the improved SSA-LSTM model and 9.31% higher than the conventional LSTM model. Therefore, this method can provide a reference for the stable supply of natural gas in the region.

     

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