考虑需求侧影响的天然气管网事故工况流量分配方法
Gas flow allocation method for natural gas pipeline network under accident conditions considering demand side effect
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摘要: 天然气管网失效事件会严重影响天然气供应安全, 降低天然气管网供气可靠性和用户满意度。为了最大限度保障用户的用气需求, 将失效事件对管网供气可靠性和用户满意度的影响降至最低, 提出耦合单元失效和需求侧影响的天然气管网事故工况流量分配方法。该方法首先建立适用于不同类型天然气用户的需求预测模型和用户分级机制; 其次, 天然气管网水-热力计算模拟, 量化失效事件对管输能力的影响; 最后, 基于混合整数线性规划建立天然气管网流量分配优化模型, 考虑用户需求侧和失效事件影响以及气源进气量、管网流量、压力和水力等约束, 确定事故工况下管网最优流量分配方案。将所提方法应用于某实际天然气管网中, 对管网关键供气节点和环节进行识别, 并确定不同失效事件下的管网流量分配方案。结果表明, 采用该管网流量分配方法, 能够最大程度保障重要度更大的天然气用户, 从而降低事故对下游用户的影响, 为管网精准调控提供技术支撑。Abstract: The failure events in natural gas pipeline network will seriously afect the security of natural gas supply and reduce gas supply reliability and user satisfaction. Therefore, in order to meet the natural gas demand to the greatest extent and minimize the impact of failure events on gas supply reliability and user satisfaction, a method was proposed for gas flow allocation in natural gas pipeline network under accident conditions coupling with the unit failure and demand sideimpact. In this method, firstly, the demand prediction model suitable for diferent types of natural gas users and the user classification mechanism were established. Secondly, the hydraulic-thermal simulation of natural gas pipeline network was used to quantify the impact of failure event on the pipeline transmission capacity. Finally, the optimization model for flow allocation in the natural gas pipeline network was established based on the mixed-integer linear programming. Meanwhile, the optimal flow allocation plan under accident conditions was determined with consideration to the impact of user demand side and failure events, as well as the gas inflow at the source and the flow, pressure and hydraulic constraints of pipeline network. Furthermore, the proposed method was applied to a real natural gas pipeline network to identify the key nodes and links of gas supply in the pipeline network. The gas flow allocation plans under diferent accident conditionswere determined. The results show that the application of the proposed flow allocation method for the pipeline network could give priority to supply natural gas to the users with higher importance, thus minimizing the impact of accidents on downstream users and providing technical support for the precise regulation and control of the pipeline network.