管恩东. 基于IGSA-RFR的多相流集输管道内腐蚀速率预测模型[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(12): 1448-1454. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.12.011
引用本文: 管恩东. 基于IGSA-RFR的多相流集输管道内腐蚀速率预测模型[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(12): 1448-1454. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.12.011
GUAN Endong. Prediction model for internal corrosion rate of multiphase flow gathering pipeline based on IGSA-RFR[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(12): 1448-1454. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.12.011
Citation: GUAN Endong. Prediction model for internal corrosion rate of multiphase flow gathering pipeline based on IGSA-RFR[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(12): 1448-1454. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.12.011

基于IGSA-RFR的多相流集输管道内腐蚀速率预测模型

Prediction model for internal corrosion rate of multiphase flow gathering pipeline based on IGSA-RFR

  • 摘要: 为提高多相流集输管道内腐蚀速率的预测精度,采用改进万有引力算法(Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm, IGSA)结合随机森林(Random Forest Regression, RFR)的组合模型,通过IGSA对RFR模型的决策树个数和分裂特征数进行优化,探讨了迭代次数对预测精度的影响,引入统计学指标对模型的精确度进行检验,并对影响腐蚀速率的特征变量进行排序。结果表明:除压力外,其余变量对内腐蚀速率的影响均较大,在相同的测试集下,IGSA-RFR组合模型的均方误差为0.000 016 5,较其他模型小2个数量级;平均绝对比例误差为0.524 1,较其他模型小1个数量级;判定系数R2为0.999 6,在各模型中最接近1,可见IGSA-RFR模型在预测准确度上优于其他模型,适合多相流集输管道内腐蚀速率的预测研究。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy on internal corrosion rate of multiphase flow pipelines, the combined model of Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm (IGSA) and Random Forest Regression (RFR) was adopted, the number of decision trees and division characteristics of RFR model were optimized by IGSA, the influence of iteration times on prediction accuracy was discussed, the accuracy of model was verified by introducing the statistical indicators, and the characteristic variables affecting the corrosion rate were ranked. The results show that the variables other than pressure have great influence on the internal corrosion rate. The mean-square error of IGSA-RFR combined model in the same test set is 0.000 016 5, which is 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of other models. Besides, its mean absolute percentage error is 0.524 1, which is 1 order of magnitude smaller than that of other models, and the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.999 6, which is the closest to 1 in all models. Hence, IGSA-RFR model is better than other models in terms of prediction accuracy and suitable for the research on prediction of internal corrosion rate of multiphase flow gathering pipelines.

     

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