陈金铭, 陈昊, 刘国锋, 陈海成. 基于云模型的FPSO拖航作业风险评价方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(11): 1277-1284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.11.005
引用本文: 陈金铭, 陈昊, 刘国锋, 陈海成. 基于云模型的FPSO拖航作业风险评价方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(11): 1277-1284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.11.005
CHEN Jinming, CHEN Hao, LIU Guofeng, CHEN Haicheng. Risk assessment method of FPSO towing operation based on cloud model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(11): 1277-1284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.11.005
Citation: CHEN Jinming, CHEN Hao, LIU Guofeng, CHEN Haicheng. Risk assessment method of FPSO towing operation based on cloud model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(11): 1277-1284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.11.005

基于云模型的FPSO拖航作业风险评价方法

Risk assessment method of FPSO towing operation based on cloud model

  • 摘要: 为避免浮式生产储油卸油系统(Floating Production Storage and Offloading,FPSO)拖航过程发生安全环保事故,对拖航作业流程中的潜在风险因素进行分类识别,构建了FPSO拖航作业风险评价指标体系,建立了基于云模型的FPSO拖航作业风险评价方法。为解决主观评估中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,提出了针对风险因素评价指标的标准云、风险等级参考云的云模型构造方法;引入熵权法获取领域专家权重,结合云模型融合方法获取风险因素的综合评价云;考虑风险概率和后果两方面影响,获取单因素风险评价云,通过计算风险云与参考云的接近度,获取综合评价矩阵;利用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)得到风险评价指标权重向量,对FPSO拖航作业进行模糊综合评价,再根据最大隶属度原则确定风险等级。将该方法应用于某油田FPSO拖航项目进行风险评价,实现了拖航作业风险等级的有效评定和预判,证明了该方法的准确性,可为FPSO拖航作业提供安全决策指导。

     

    Abstract: In order to prevent the safety and environment accidents during the towing process of Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) system, the potential risk factors in the towing process were identified by classification, the risk evaluation indicator system of FPSO towing operation was constructed and a comprehensive risk evaluation method of FPSO towering operation based on cloud model was developed. To deal with the fuzziness and randomness in subjective evaluation, a cloud model construction method was proposed for the standard cloud and risk level reference cloud for the evaluation indicators of risk factors. Meanwhile, the domain expert weight was gained by introducing in the entropy weight method, and the comprehensive evaluation cloud of risk factors was obtained with the cloud model fusion method. Besides, the risk evaluation cloud for single-factor was obtained with consideration to the influence on risk probability and consequence, and the comprehensive evaluation matrix was gotten by calculating the proximity of risk cloud to the reference cloud. Further, the weight vector of risk evaluation indicator was acquired with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, and thus the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was performed for FPSO towing operation. Finally, the risk level was determined on the maximum membership principle. Generally, the risk level of towing operation was evaluated and prejudged effectively by applying this method to the risk evaluation of FPSO towing project in an oilfield, which verifies the accuracy of the method, capable of providing guidance for decision-making on safety of FPSO towing operations.

     

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