司明理, 曾发镔, 郑登锋. 隧道内埋地油气管道巡检安全风险评价模型[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(10): 1159-1167. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.10.005
引用本文: 司明理, 曾发镔, 郑登锋. 隧道内埋地油气管道巡检安全风险评价模型[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(10): 1159-1167. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.10.005
SI Mingli, ZENG Fabin, ZHENG Dengfeng. Safety risk assessment model for patrol inspection of buried oil and gas pipelines in tunnels[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(10): 1159-1167. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.10.005
Citation: SI Mingli, ZENG Fabin, ZHENG Dengfeng. Safety risk assessment model for patrol inspection of buried oil and gas pipelines in tunnels[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(10): 1159-1167. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.10.005

隧道内埋地油气管道巡检安全风险评价模型

Safety risk assessment model for patrol inspection of buried oil and gas pipelines in tunnels

  • 摘要: 为有效评价隧道内埋地长输管道巡检的风险等级,针对管道巡检作业随机性、模糊性的特点,引入云理论与组合赋权方法,构建了隧道内埋地油气管道巡检安全风险评价模型。以穿越某隧道群的国家管网集团伊犁果子沟段管道为例,基于危险源理论,选取隧道因素、路网因素、环境因素、人的行为、物的状态以及管理水平6个方面29项风险因素作为评价指标;基于欧式距离组合,运用改进G2法与CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)法确定各指标的权重系数;依据各指标的分级标准,利用Matlab软件计算云模型的特征参数并生成云图;通过正向云发生器,确定不同风险等级下的指标隶属度、综合隶属度。研究结果表明:基于欧式距离的组合赋权方法既可以降低决策者的主观不确定性,又可以消除数据间的客观误差,评价结果与工程实评结果吻合较好。构建的评价模型具有较好的科学性与适用性,可为管道巡检风险评价提供新思路。

     

    Abstract: The patrol inspection of oil and gas pipelines has the characteristics of randomness and fuzziness. In order to effectively assess the risk level of patrol inspection of buried long-distance oil and gas pipelines in tunnels, a safety risk assessment model for patrol inspection of pipelines was constructed by introducing the cloud theory and combination weighting method. Herein, study was performed on Ili?Guozigou Pipeline of PipeChina in a tunnel group. Specifically, 29 risk factors in 6 aspects, i.e., tunnel, road network, environment, human behavior, state of object and management level, were used as the assessment indicators based on the hazard theory. Meanwhile, the weight coefficients of each indicator were determined using the improved G2 method and CRITIC (Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation) method based on the combination of Euclidean distance. The characteristic parameters of the cloud model were calculated and the cloud image was generated with Matlab software according to the classification standards of each indicator. Besides, the indicator membership degree and the comprehensive membership degree under different risk levels were determined by the forward cloud generator. The results show that the combination weighting technique based on Euclidean distance can not only reduce the subjective uncertainty of decision-makers, but also eliminate the objective errors between data. In addition, the assessment results are in good agreement with the field engineering evaluation results. The assessment model constructed has good scientificity and applicability, and is capable of providing new ideas for the risk assessment of patrol inspection of the buried long-distance oil and gas pipelines in tunnels.

     

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