赵振学, 石永杰, 张立峰, 于慧超. 基于时间序列与模糊推理的成品油库出库预测算法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(9): 1095-1102. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.09.013
引用本文: 赵振学, 石永杰, 张立峰, 于慧超. 基于时间序列与模糊推理的成品油库出库预测算法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(9): 1095-1102. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.09.013
ZHAO Zhenxue, SHI Yongjie, ZHANG Lifeng, YU Huichao. Outbound volume prediction algorithm of product oil depot based on time series and fuzzy inference[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(9): 1095-1102. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.09.013
Citation: ZHAO Zhenxue, SHI Yongjie, ZHANG Lifeng, YU Huichao. Outbound volume prediction algorithm of product oil depot based on time series and fuzzy inference[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(9): 1095-1102. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.09.013

基于时间序列与模糊推理的成品油库出库预测算法

Outbound volume prediction algorithm of product oil depot based on time series and fuzzy inference

  • 摘要: 油品出库量精确高效预测是成品油库存科学管理的源头和基础。为提高成品油库库存效率,降低油品库存成本,以某公司西部地区166座成品油库为研究对象,在库存管理、销量预测等相关研究成果基础上,分析库存管理的影响因素,集成多模型的时间序列模型算法库和基于Mamdani的模糊推理系统,设计双时间颗粒度的多阶段预测算法,开展月度和日度油品出库量预测,并进行量化分析。结果表明:所建算法可根据出库量数据特征自动选择合适的模型,在短时间内高质量匹配并完成大批量油库出库量的预测,预测结果平均绝对百分误差的中位数大于85%,预测置信度接近95%,应用案例月度出库量预测平均准确率可达90%。研究成果可为成品油库存管理决策优化提供科学化建议,对建立科学高效的现代化油品供应物流体系具有现实意义。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and efficient prediction of outbound volume of product oil is the source and basis of scientific management for product oil inventory. In order to increase the inventory efficiency and lower the inventory cost of product oil, 166 product oil depots of a company in the western region were studied to analyze the influencing factors of inventory management on the base of the related research results of inventory management and sales prediction. Thereby, the multi-stage prediction algorithm of dual-time granularity was designed, and the algorithm was integrated with the time series model algorithm library of multi-model as well as Mamdani's fuzzy inference systems to predict the monthly and daily outbound volume of product oil and conduct the quantitative analysis. As indicated by the results, the proposed algorithm and the algorithm designed by the model library could automatically select the appropriate model according to the data characteristics of the outbound volume, as well as match and predict the outbound volume of the oil depot on large scale with high quality in short time. Generally, the median of the average absolute percentage error of the prediction results is higher than 85%, the prediction confidence is close to 95%, and the average accuracy of the monthly outbound volume prediction of the application cases can reach 90%. Conclusively, the research results could provide scientific recommendations for the decision-making on inventory management of oil depot, and have practical significance for establishing a scientific and efficient modern oil supply and logistics system.

     

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