孙逸林, 王冶, 刘险峰, 李洪兵. 基于24Model的燃气管道维抢事故致因定量分析方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(7): 795-801. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.07.006
引用本文: 孙逸林, 王冶, 刘险峰, 李洪兵. 基于24Model的燃气管道维抢事故致因定量分析方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(7): 795-801. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.07.006
SUN Yilin, WANG Ye, LIU Xianfeng, LI Hongbing. Quantitative analysis method for causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents based on 24Model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(7): 795-801. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.07.006
Citation: SUN Yilin, WANG Ye, LIU Xianfeng, LI Hongbing. Quantitative analysis method for causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents based on 24Model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(7): 795-801. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.07.006

基于24Model的燃气管道维抢事故致因定量分析方法

Quantitative analysis method for causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents based on 24Model

  • 摘要: 厘清燃气管道维抢事故致因因素间的逻辑关系,可以有效防控事故发生。提出了一种基于24Model的燃气管道维抢事故致因定量分析方法:首先基于24Model层次结构及其致因识别程序辨识燃气管道维抢事故致因;再利用由灰色系统理论改进的决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)集成解释结构模型(Interpretive Structural Modeling,ISM)方法构建事故致因综合影响关系矩阵及可达矩阵,划分事故致因的层次结构,明确事故致因间的作用关系;最后运用交叉影响矩阵相乘法(Matrix Impacts Cross-reference Multiplication Applied to Classfication,MICMAC)计算各致因的驱动力和依赖度以判断其属性类别。将新方法应用于吉林松原“7·4”事故开展实例研究,结果表明:政府机构监管不力是该事故的深层客观根源,安全主体责任未落实、对安全投入认识不足等因素是事故的关键主观致因。灰色DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法与24Model相结合能够准确地定量探究燃气管道维抢事故的致因机制和演化规律,可为燃气公司、外包单位及政府部门共同制定事故防控措施提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to analyze the logical relationship among the causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents for effective prevention and control, a 24Model-based quantitative analysis method was put forward. Firstly, the causal factors of gas pipeline repair and rescue accidents were identified based on the hierarchical structure of 24Model and its causal factor identification procedure. Then, the comprehensive influence relation matrix and accessibility matrix of causal factors were established by the method of Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) integrating with Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), which is improved by the grey system theory. On this basis, the causal factors were ranked and the interaction between the causal factors was clarified. Next, the driving force and dependence of each causal factor were calculated by the Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) method, so as to determine their attribute categories. Finally, case study was performed based on the "7·4" accident occurred in Songyuan, Jilin province. The results show that the objective root of the accident lies in the poor supervision of local government agencies, while the factors, such as failure to implement the responsibility of safety subject and inadequate understanding of safety input, are the core subjective factors. The grey DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method combined with 24Model could accurately and quantitatively explore the causing mechanism and evolution law of the repair and rescue accidents of gas pipelines, providing reference for provide reference for gas companies, outsourcing units and government departments to jointly formulate accident prevention and control.

     

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