赵国忠, 杨牧, 李哲伟. 天然气长输管道投资风险定量评估[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(4): 473-480. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.016
引用本文: 赵国忠, 杨牧, 李哲伟. 天然气长输管道投资风险定量评估[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(4): 473-480. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.016
ZHAO Guozhong, YANG Mu, LI Zhewei. Quantitative assessment of investment risk of long-distance natural gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(4): 473-480. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.016
Citation: ZHAO Guozhong, YANG Mu, LI Zhewei. Quantitative assessment of investment risk of long-distance natural gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(4): 473-480. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.016

天然气长输管道投资风险定量评估

Quantitative assessment of investment risk of long-distance natural gas pipelines

  • 摘要: 为满足中国未来油气管网建设发展投资决策的需要,亟需开发一种针对天然气长输管道项目投资风险的定量评估方法,从而为投资决策提供评估依据。为此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛法的投资风险评估流程,根据天然气长输管道项目的技术经济特征,构建了管道运输价格校核模式下的效益模型。以某大型天然气长输管道项目为例进行风险评估,通过专家打分法建立了项目投资风险因素识别清单,并量化了风险因素与等级划分;以三角分布函数作为概率分布函数,明确了设计输量、管道运输价格及建设投资作为输入变量,运用风险评估软件@RISK进行了模拟计算。计算结果表明:作为输出变量的财务净现值呈现一定的统计规律且趋向于正态分布,财务净现值大于等于0的概率为94.4%,说明该项目具有较好的盈利期望,同时具有较强的抗风险能力。模拟计算结果验证了基于蒙特卡洛法的定量评估方法的可行性及有效性,可为长输油气管道投资风险的定量评估提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to meet the needs of investment decision-making in the construction and development of China's oil and gas pipeline network in the future, it is urgent to develop a quantitative assessment method for the investment risk of long-distance gas pipeline projects, which can provide an assessment basis for investment decision-making. Herein, the investment risk assessment process of the Monte Carlo method was proposed, and a benefit model under the pipeline transportation price check mode was constructed according to the technical and economic characteristics of the long-distance gas pipeline projects. Thereby, risk assessment was performed based on a large long-distance gas pipeline project, an identification list of project investment risk factors was established through the expert scoring method, and the risk factors and grade division were quantified. Additionally, the design transportation capacity, pipeline transportation price and construction investment were clarified as the input variables by considering the triangular distribution function as the probability distribution function, and simulation calculation was conducted by the risk assessment software @RISK. The calculation results show that the financial net present value as an output variable presents some statistical law and tends to a normal distribution. The probability of the financial net present value greater than or equal to 0 is 94.4%, which indicates that the project has good profit expectations and a relatively high risk resistance capability. Moreover, the simulation calculation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the quantitative assessment based on the Monte Carlo method. Generally, the research results can provide a reference for the quantitative assessment of investment risks of the long-distance oil and gas pipeliness.

     

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