王盟浩, 李森圣, 谢雯洁. 基于储气服务属性分析的储气库商业化运营模式[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(4): 466-472. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.015
引用本文: 王盟浩, 李森圣, 谢雯洁. 基于储气服务属性分析的储气库商业化运营模式[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(4): 466-472. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.015
WANG Menghao, LI Sensheng, XIE Wenjie. Commercial operation mode of gas storages based on attributive analysis of gas storage service[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(4): 466-472. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.015
Citation: WANG Menghao, LI Sensheng, XIE Wenjie. Commercial operation mode of gas storages based on attributive analysis of gas storage service[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(4): 466-472. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.04.015

基于储气服务属性分析的储气库商业化运营模式

Commercial operation mode of gas storages based on attributive analysis of gas storage service

  • 摘要: 储气服务具有易逝资产属性及金融属性,对其进行基于金融价值划分的收益管理,并对储气服务产品进行细分及差异化定价,即可实现最大收益。为探究储气库商业化运营模式新思路,使用最小二乘蒙特卡洛法,对储气服务产品的金融价值进行量化计算,以展示储气服务在产品和市场两个维度下金融价值的变化情况。结果表明:储气服务产品的工作气量和注采能力呈相互制约关系,储气服务产品应当合理搭配工作气量与注采能力的组合,以实现更优的价值。合同时长受天然气价格周期性的影响,以1年的整数倍为合同时长的产品,具有相对更高的金融价值。结合金融价值的变化,将不同市场形态分为管制阶段、内在价值阶段及外在价值阶段。管制阶段储气库金融价值极低;在价格波动率较低的时候,内在价值阶段和外在价值阶段下储气服务能够实现的金融价值相差不大;在价格波动率较高的时候,外在价值阶段的储气服务实现的价值相对更高。研究成果可为天然气市场化背景下储气库商业化运营模式的建立提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract: Gas storage service has the attributes of perishable assets and financial assets. Hence, its revenue can be maximized by the revenue management based on the division of financial value, the detailed classification of gas storage service products and the differential pricing. In order to explore the new idea on commercial operation mode of gas storages, the financial values of gas storage service products were quantitatively calculated with the least-square Monte-Carlo method, so that the variation of the financial value of gas storage service in the dimensions of product and market was shown. The result indicates that the working gas volume and the injection-withdrawal capacity of gas storage service products are restrained mutually. So, the gas storage service products should have a reasonable combination of working gas volume and injection-withdrawal capacity to realize better value. In addition, the contract duration is affected by the price circle of natural gas, and the products with contract duration in integral multiple years show higher financial values. Based on the variation of financial value, various market forms are separated into the regulation phase, the intrinsic value phase and the external value phase. Generally, the financial value of gas storages is extremely low in the regulation phase. The financial value that can be achieved by the gas storage service varies little in the intrinsic and external value phases at low price volatility, but relatively higher in the external value phases at high price volatility. The research results could provide theoretical support for building the commercial operation mode of gas storages under the background of natural gas marketization.

     

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