梁昌晶, 管恩东. 基于RBF模型的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(2): 233-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.014
引用本文: 梁昌晶, 管恩东. 基于RBF模型的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(2): 233-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.014
LIANG Changjing, GUAN Endong. External corrosion rate prediction of buried pipeline based on RBF model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(2): 233-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.014
Citation: LIANG Changjing, GUAN Endong. External corrosion rate prediction of buried pipeline based on RBF model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(2): 233-240. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.014

基于RBF模型的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测

External corrosion rate prediction of buried pipeline based on RBF model

  • 摘要: 为克服埋地管道土壤腐蚀因素之间具有模糊性、随机性、交互性及传统方法预测精度较低等缺陷,以某现场埋地管道腐蚀埋片数据为基础,选择10个影响因素为输入参数,以外腐蚀速率为输出参数,采用径向基函数(RadialBasisFunction,RBF)神经网络模型,对数据样本进行训练、验证、测试,建立外腐蚀速率预测模型,并通过Sobol敏感度分析确定影响腐蚀的关键参数。结果表明:10-35-1型RBF神经网络模型迭代至2273步时,均方误差为0.00099,训练、验证、测试阶段的相关系数分别为0.9707、0.9813、0.9901;与BP、MLR、SVM等模型相比,RBF神经网络模型的平均相对误差为2.07%,说明其在预测埋地管道外腐蚀速率方面具有一定优越性;土壤电阻率对外腐蚀速率的影响最大,且土壤电阻率、pH值、Cl-含量与其他因素之间的交互作用显著,应重点关注。所建模型可广泛应用于管道外腐蚀速率预测,其结果可为管道完整性管理提供理论依据与参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to overcome the shortcomings of fuzziness, randomness and interaction between the soil corrosion factors of buried pipeline, as well as the low accuracy of prediction with the traditional methods, a prediction model of external corrosion rate was established with 10 influencing factors as the input, and the external corrosion rate as the output based on the field data of corrosion coupons of a buried pipeline. Thereby, the data samples were trained, verified and tested using the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network mode, and the key parameters affecting the corrosion were identified through Sobol sensitivity analysis. The results show that the mean square error is 0.000 99 when 10-35-1 type RBF model is iterated to step 2 273, and the correlation coefficients of the training, validation and testing stages are 0.970 7, 0.981 3 and 0.990 1 respectively. Compared with BP, MLR and SVM models, the average relative error of RBF neural network model is 2.07%, indicating that RBF neural network model has some advantages in terms of the external corrosion rate prediction of buried pipeline. The soil resistivity has the maximum effect on the external corrosion rate. Moreover, the soil resistivity, pH value, and Cl- content significantly interact with other factors, which should be paid much more attention. Generally, the established model can be effectively applied to the external corrosion rate prediction of pipeline, and the results could provide theoretical basis and reference for pipeline integrity management.

     

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