吴守志, 侯磊, 伍星光, 刘芳媛. 安全屏障对储油罐区池火灾多米诺效应概率的影响[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(2): 165-176. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.006
引用本文: 吴守志, 侯磊, 伍星光, 刘芳媛. 安全屏障对储油罐区池火灾多米诺效应概率的影响[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(2): 165-176. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.006
WU Shouzhi, HOU Lei, WU Xingguang, LIU Fangyuan. Influence of safety barriers on probability of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farm[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(2): 165-176. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.006
Citation: WU Shouzhi, HOU Lei, WU Xingguang, LIU Fangyuan. Influence of safety barriers on probability of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farm[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(2): 165-176. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.02.006

安全屏障对储油罐区池火灾多米诺效应概率的影响

Influence of safety barriers on probability of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farm

  • 摘要: 随着石油储库朝大型化、集约化方向发展,罐区工艺与设备日趋繁杂,一旦发生火灾事故,极易引发多米诺效应,导致灾难性后果。为了降低石油储库事故对周边人员、环境等造成的影响,基于主动、被动、应急与响应措施3种安全屏障的性能,采用事件树与贝叶斯网络方法针对不同安全屏障建模,进而对事故多米诺效应概率进行定量评估。结果表明:多层安全屏障可使多米诺效应概率下降3~7个数量级,多级多米诺效应概率降低程度更大;被动安全屏障降低多米诺效应概率的效果最显著,应急与响应措施降低多米诺效应概率的效果次之,主动安全屏障降低多米诺效应概率的效果最弱。研究结果可为降低多设备集中分布区域事故伤害及影响提供指导。

     

    Abstract: With the enlargement and intensification of oil storages, the technologies and equipment used in the tank farm are quite complicated. Hence, once any fire accident occurs, the domino effect may be triggered with catastrophic consequences. In order to reduce the impact of oil storage accidents on the surrounding personnel and environment, the model of safety barrier was established with the event tree and Bayesian network method by considering the performance of three types of safety barrier, including the active, passive, emergency and response measures, and the probability of the domino effect was evaluated quantitatively. The results show that: the multi-layer safety barriers can reduce the probability of domino effect by 3 to 7 orders of magnitude and the probability of the multi-level domino effect to a greater extent. Besides, the passive protection barrier is the most effective, followed by the emergency and response measures, and the active barrier is the least effective. Generally, the research results can provide some guidance for reducing the damage and impact of regional accidents in the areas where multiple devices are concentrated.

     

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