王武昌, 章艺, 李玉星, 刘承松, 梁蓝云. 基于风险理论的天然气管网脆弱性分析方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(1): 42-47. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.01.006
引用本文: 王武昌, 章艺, 李玉星, 刘承松, 梁蓝云. 基于风险理论的天然气管网脆弱性分析方法[J]. 油气储运, 2022, 41(1): 42-47. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.01.006
WANG Wuchang, ZHANG Yi, LI Yuxing, LIU Chengsong, LIANG Lanyun. Vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks based on risk theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(1): 42-47. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.01.006
Citation: WANG Wuchang, ZHANG Yi, LI Yuxing, LIU Chengsong, LIANG Lanyun. Vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks based on risk theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2022, 41(1): 42-47. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.01.006

基于风险理论的天然气管网脆弱性分析方法

Vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks based on risk theory

  • 摘要: 天然气管网安全分析方法主要有风险评价法、可靠性分析法及脆弱性分析法。由于3种方法分析问题的角度不同,导致识别关键组件的结果有所不同。通过将风险理论与脆弱性分析方法相结合,提出了风险-脆弱度方法:主要从管道运行状态、传输性能、网络特征3个角度识别管网关键组件,采用风险偏好型效用函数计算指标的后果严重度,再乘以失效概率得到风险值;从脆弱性分析思想出发,建立组件重要度计算公式,将重要度与风险值相乘得到组件的脆弱度,利用脆弱度识别关键组件。将该方法运用于浙江省天然气管网的脆弱性分析,结果表明:新方法考虑了频发危险事件概率,同时不忽略失效概率低但产生后果严重的组件对管网供气能力的影响,可以更加全面、有效地识别天然气管网关键组件,为管网安全运行提供保障。

     

    Abstract: At present, the analysis of natural gas pipeline network safety mainly focuses on the risk assessment, reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. Because of the different analysis perspectives of the three methods, the results of identifying the key components are also different. In this study, by combining the risk theory and the vulnerability analysis, the risk-vulnerability analysis method was developed, which identifies the key components of the pipeline networks from the three perspectives of pipeline operating status, transmission performance and network characteristics. Definitely, the key components are identified according to the vulnerability that is the product of the importance and risk values of the components. Therein, the risk value is obtained by multiplying the failure probability with the consequence severity of the indicators that is calculated with the risk-preferred utility function, and the importance is calculated according to the formula starting from the ideas for vulnerability analysis. Moreover, the vulnerability of the natural gas pipeline network in Zhejiang Province was analyzed in this way, and the results indicate that: This method does not ignore the influence of the components with low failure probability and serious consequences on the gas supply capacity of the pipeline network while considering the probability of the frequent occurrence of hazardous events, so that the key components of the natural gas pipeline network can be identified more comprehensively and effectively, further guaranteeing the safe operation of pipeline networks.

     

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