熊毅, 高萍, 赵潇, 赵立康. 天然气管道泄漏应急抢修过程的动态AHP风险评价[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(12): 1423-1429. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.12.014
引用本文: 熊毅, 高萍, 赵潇, 赵立康. 天然气管道泄漏应急抢修过程的动态AHP风险评价[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(12): 1423-1429. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.12.014
XIONG Yi, GAO Ping, ZHAO Xiao, ZHAO Li-kang. Dynamic AHP-based risk assessment for emergency repair of natural gas pipeline leakage[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(12): 1423-1429. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.12.014
Citation: XIONG Yi, GAO Ping, ZHAO Xiao, ZHAO Li-kang. Dynamic AHP-based risk assessment for emergency repair of natural gas pipeline leakage[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(12): 1423-1429. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.12.014

天然气管道泄漏应急抢修过程的动态AHP风险评价

Dynamic AHP-based risk assessment for emergency repair of natural gas pipeline leakage

  • 摘要: 为了对天然气长输管道泄漏应急抢修过程的风险进行有效评价, 基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)提出动态AHP风险评价模型。将风险指标分为5类, 并对各类风险指标的风险隶属度更新算法进行了说明; 通过对天然气管道泄漏事故应急抢修过程的风险进行分析, 建立了应急抢险过程动态AHP风险评价指标体系, 并对各二级指标进行了归类。以川气东送天然气管道某次泄漏事故为案例, 利用动态AHP风险评价模型对应急抢修整体施工过程的风险动态演变进行了分析, 结果表明: 应急抢修过程中风险指标的变化可以引起AHP底层指标隶属度的变化及各层指标权重的变化, 进而引起整个应急抢修过程的风险变化。该模型可对天然气管道泄漏应急抢修过程的风险进行动态评价, 研究成果可为天然气管道泄漏应急抢修过程提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: In order to effectively evaluate the risks of emergency repair of long-distance gas pipeline leakage, a dynamic AHP-based risk assessment model was established based on the Analytic Hierarchy process(AHP), with the risk indexes classified into five categories, and the updating algorithm of membership degree of various risk indexes was also described.Meanwhile, by analyzing the risks of emergency repair in the leakage accidents of gas pipelines, a dynamic AHP-based risk assessment evaluation index system was established, and the secondary indexes were classified. In addition, the dynamic evolution of risks faced in the overall construction period of emergency repair was analyzed with the dynamic AHP-based risk assessment model based on a leakage accident of Sichuan-East Gas Pipeline. The results show that: the changes of the risk indexes during emergency repair can cause the changes of the membership degree of the AHP underlying index and the index weight of each layer, which will further result in the risk change in the entire emergency repair process. Therefore, the model could effectively and dynamically evaluate the risks of emergency repair of gas pipeline leakage. Thus, the research results could provide basis for the emergency repair of natural gas pipeline leakage thereof.

     

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