何利民, 梁隆杰, 黄天山. 石油储运设施衍生的多场景灾害评价技术[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(9): 1063-1071. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.09.012
引用本文: 何利民, 梁隆杰, 黄天山. 石油储运设施衍生的多场景灾害评价技术[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(9): 1063-1071. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.09.012
HE Limin, LIANG Longjie, HUANG Tianshan. Assessment technology of multi-scenario disasters derived from oil storage and transportation facilities[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(9): 1063-1071. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.09.012
Citation: HE Limin, LIANG Longjie, HUANG Tianshan. Assessment technology of multi-scenario disasters derived from oil storage and transportation facilities[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(9): 1063-1071. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.09.012

石油储运设施衍生的多场景灾害评价技术

Assessment technology of multi-scenario disasters derived from oil storage and transportation facilities

  • 摘要: 石油储运设施失效后对其周边公共安全带来挑战,为有效遏制石油储运设施事故造成的恶劣影响,需对多场景下的衍生灾害进行定量评价,开展衍生灾害后果评价体系研究。分析了普通事故与灾害事故的差异性,给出了石油储运设施衍生灾害的定义,用于综合考量灾害事故发生概率及影响后果。从衍生灾害系统、致灾机理以及孕灾环境3方面提出基于孕灾环境活跃度的衍生灾害评价模型。以石油管道所在的人口稠密区和环境敏感区发生的灾害事故为例,运用衍生灾害评价模型,通过贝叶斯网络计算管道泄漏引发火灾后该地区储运设施的失效概率以及孕灾环境活跃度。结果表明:综合考虑灾害频率和灾害后果建立的衍生灾害评价模型,可表征多场景的灾害损失程度,更能体现储运设施事故的灾害特性,可为石油储运设施的安全措施制定以及应急管理、应急资源规划等提供参考。

     

    Abstract: For the failure of oil storage and transportation facilities may endanger the surrounding public safety, it is necessary to conduct quantitative assessment for the derived disasters under multiple scenarios so as to effectively control the adverse impact resulted from the accidents of oil storage and transportation facilities. Meanwhile, research should also be performed for the consequence assessment system of derived disasters. Herein, the differences between the common and the serious accidents were analyzed, and the derived disasters of oil and gas storage and transportation facilities were defined to comprehensively identify the probability and consequences of disasters. In addition, an assessment model of derived disasters based on the sensibility of the disaster-inducing environment was put forward from the three aspects of the derived disaster system, the disaster-causing mechanism and the disaster-inducing environment. A case study was carried out to a disaster occurred in the densely-populated and environmental sensitive areas. Specifically, the failure probability of the oil storage and transportation facilities and the sensitivity of the disaster-inducing environment in the areas after the fire caused by the pipeline leakage were calculated with the Bayesian network using the derived disaster assessment model. The results show that the derived disaster assessment system with comprehensive consideration to the disaster frequency and consequences can not only characterize the degree of loss as a result of multi-scenario disasters, but also reflect the disaster characteristics of accidents of the storage and transportation facilities, which further provides reference to the development of safety measures of the pipelines and facilities for oil storage and transportation, as well as the emergency management and the planning of emergent resources.

     

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