齐先志, 王晓霖, 王佳楠, 奚旺. 基于网格的油气管道社会风险计算与区域规划[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(8): 945-949. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.017
引用本文: 齐先志, 王晓霖, 王佳楠, 奚旺. 基于网格的油气管道社会风险计算与区域规划[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(8): 945-949. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.017
QI Xianzhi, WANG Xiaolin, WANG Jianan, XI Wang. Grid-based societal risk calculation of oil & gas pipelines and regional planning[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(8): 945-949. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.017
Citation: QI Xianzhi, WANG Xiaolin, WANG Jianan, XI Wang. Grid-based societal risk calculation of oil & gas pipelines and regional planning[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(8): 945-949. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.017

基于网格的油气管道社会风险计算与区域规划

Grid-based societal risk calculation of oil & gas pipelines and regional planning

  • 摘要: 中国油气管道安全与周边居住及生产建设用地矛盾突出,为合理规划油气管道周边区域,将人员伤亡风险控制在可接受范围内,开发了新型的管道周边区域网格划分方法。该方法以管道中心线为基准,将管道周边区域分割成平行于管道中心线的条状网格,统计网格内人口数量。在网格划分的基础上,提出了社会风险计算方法,包括F-N曲线和基于个人风险的潜在生命损失。假设网格内人员均匀分布,阐述了管道泄漏火灾情况下网格内人员死亡数量计算方法,在此基础上,介绍了F-N曲线的构建方法。该网格划分方法能够简化社会风险计算,降低社会风险评价的工作量。在网格划分和社会风险计算基础上实施区域规划,合理配置不同网格的人口分布,可有效管控管道风险。

     

    Abstract: Presently, the safety of oil & gas pipelines conflicts seriously with the land use for housing, production and construction in the surrounding areas in China. In order to reasonably plan the surrounding areas of the oil & gas pipelines and control the risks of personal injuries within the acceptable limit, a new gridding method for surrounding areas of the oil & gas pipelines was developed. Definitely, the gridding method is to divide the surrounding areas of a pipeline with reference to its centerline into grid strips parallel to the centerline of the pipelines and then count the population within each grid. With the gridding, calculation methods were further proposed for the societal risk, including F-N curve and the potential loss of life based on the individual risks. On the condition of uniform population distribution in one grid, the calculation method for the number of deaths of a grid in the fire due to pipeline leakage was elaborated, and on this basis, the method to construct the F-N curve was also introduced. The gridding can not only simplify the calculation process of societal risks, but also decrease the workload of societal risk assessment. Moreover, the risks of pipelines can be effectively controlled by the regional planning based on the gridding and societal risk calculation, in which the populations are rationally allocated in each grid.

     

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