刘鹏, 李玉星, 杨昊, 王武昌, 刘翠伟, 张宇, 王劲. 输气管道泄漏事故衍生灾害后果定量评价方法[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(6): 664-672. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.06.009
引用本文: 刘鹏, 李玉星, 杨昊, 王武昌, 刘翠伟, 张宇, 王劲. 输气管道泄漏事故衍生灾害后果定量评价方法[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(6): 664-672. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.06.009
LIU Peng, LI Yuxing, YANG Hao, WANG Wuchang, LIU Cuiwei, ZHANG Yu, WANG Jing. Quantitative evaluation method for consequences of derivative hazards caused by gas pipeline leakage[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(6): 664-672. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.06.009
Citation: LIU Peng, LI Yuxing, YANG Hao, WANG Wuchang, LIU Cuiwei, ZHANG Yu, WANG Jing. Quantitative evaluation method for consequences of derivative hazards caused by gas pipeline leakage[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(6): 664-672. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.06.009

输气管道泄漏事故衍生灾害后果定量评价方法

Quantitative evaluation method for consequences of derivative hazards caused by gas pipeline leakage

  • 摘要: 输气管道的大力建设为管道安全运行带来了巨大挑战,为了有效遏制输气管道事故造成的灾害,需开展输气管道泄漏事故衍生灾害后果研究。基于输气管道衍生灾害概念,从灾害发生概率、灾害潜在损失后果两个方面构建了衍生灾害评价体系,制定了衍生灾害评价流程,建立了灾害发生概率与灾害损失后果计算方法,并提出了衍生灾害评价标准。以某输气管道为例,开展了衍生灾害评价,结果表明:采用新建立的输气管道衍生灾害评价方法,可以得出管道灾害对社会公众的影响程度,实现管道衍生灾害的等级划分,为输气管道安全管理、救灾决策与应急抗灾措施制定提供科学保障与技术支持。

     

    Abstract: The vigorous construction of gas pipelines has brought huge challenges to the safety operation of pipelines. In order to effectively control the hazards caused by accidents of gas pipelines, research should be conducted for the consequences of derivative hazards caused by gas pipeline leakage. Based on the concept of gas pipeline derivative hazards, a derivative hazard evaluation system was established in terms of the probability and the potential loss consequences of hazards, the procedures for derivative hazard evaluation was developed, the calculation method of probability and loss consequences of the derivative hazards was defined, and the evaluation criteria of the derivative hazards was specified. In this study, the derivative hazard evaluation was carried out to a pipeline, and the results indicate that, with the derivative hazard evaluation method of gas pipelines, the degree of impact of pipeline hazards on the public can be obtained, and the classification of pipeline derivative hazards can be realized, which provides scientific guarantee and technical support for gas pipeline safety management, disaster relief decision-making and development of emergency response measures.

     

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