吴岩, 刘喆, 李灿, 刘洋, 宋超凡, 周雷. 西气东输系统城市燃气用户负荷预测[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(4): 386-390. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.04.004
引用本文: 吴岩, 刘喆, 李灿, 刘洋, 宋超凡, 周雷. 西气东输系统城市燃气用户负荷预测[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(4): 386-390. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.04.004
WU Yan, LIU Zhe, LI Can, LIU Yang, SONG Chaofan, ZHOU Lei. Load forecasting of urban gas users in West-to-East Gas Pipeline System[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(4): 386-390. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.04.004
Citation: WU Yan, LIU Zhe, LI Can, LIU Yang, SONG Chaofan, ZHOU Lei. Load forecasting of urban gas users in West-to-East Gas Pipeline System[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(4): 386-390. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.04.004

西气东输系统城市燃气用户负荷预测

Load forecasting of urban gas users in West-to-East Gas Pipeline System

  • 摘要: 为实现智慧管网建设中天然气分输站场的智能分输功能,需针对用户(尤其是受环境因素影响较大的城市燃气用户)开展负荷预测,为分输支路应用人工智能算法预测和调整分输控制策略提供依据。建立了一种基于多层BP神经网络智能化预测模型,对西气东输管网某燃气用户进行负荷预测,将气温、风速、风向等天气状况参数和历史负荷值作为输入,对比发现该预测方法模拟结果与实际负荷值相对误差不超过±8%,可以较准确地预测城市燃气用户72 h的短期负荷。此外,进一步研究了负荷预测精度的影响因素,结果表明:约1 ℃的气温变化将引起冬季用户5%~6%的需求量变化,当气温超过14 ℃时用户负荷随着温度上升呈线性减少的趋势,超过18 ℃将不再受影响;风速和降雨变化对于用户需求量的影响则不超过5%。短期用户负荷的准确预测是实现管道或管网公司高效、合理、经济运营天然气供应系统的基础,可保证供气方案经济合理、运营调度安全高效。

     

    Abstract: In order to realize the intelligent distribution function of natural gas distribution stations in the construction of intelligent pipeline networks, load forecasting should be carried out for users, especially the urban gas users who are greatly affected by the environmental factors, so as to provide a basis for the distribution branch to forecast and adjust the distribution control strategy with the artificial intelligence algorithm. An intelligent forecasting model based on a multilayered BP neural network was established, load forecasting was conducted for a gas user in West-to-East Gas Pipeline Network, and the results of comparison, with the weather parameters such as temperature, wind speed and direction, and the historical load value as the input, indicated that the simulation results with the forecasting method had a relative error of no more than ±8% with the actual load value, capable of accurately forecasting the 72 h short-term load of the urban gas users. In addition, the factors affecting the accuracy of load forecasting were further studied, and it was found that the change of temperature at about 1 ℃ would lead to the change of demand of about 5%-6% in winter. When the temperature exceeds 14 ℃, the user load will decrease linearly with the rise of temperature, and it will not be affected when the temperature exceeds 18 ℃. Variations in wind speed and rainfall, on the other hand, have less than 5% impact on user's demand. Accurate short-term user load forecasting is the basis for the efficient, reasonable and economic operation of the natural gas supply system by the pipeline or pipeline network companies, which can effectively ensure the economy and reasonability of the gas supply scheme, as well as the safety and efficiency of operation and scheduling.

     

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