王新, 刘建平, 张强, 井丽磊, 王宁峰, 田磊, 赵一桦, 张博钊. 油气管道定量风险评价技术发展现状及对策[J]. 油气储运, 2020, 39(11): 1238-1243. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2020.11.004
引用本文: 王新, 刘建平, 张强, 井丽磊, 王宁峰, 田磊, 赵一桦, 张博钊. 油气管道定量风险评价技术发展现状及对策[J]. 油气储运, 2020, 39(11): 1238-1243. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2020.11.004
WANG Xin, LIU Jianping, ZHANG Qiang, JING Lilei, WANG Ningfeng, TIAN Lei, ZHAO Yihua, ZHANG Bozhao. Development status and countermeasures of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil & gas pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2020, 39(11): 1238-1243. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2020.11.004
Citation: WANG Xin, LIU Jianping, ZHANG Qiang, JING Lilei, WANG Ningfeng, TIAN Lei, ZHAO Yihua, ZHANG Bozhao. Development status and countermeasures of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil & gas pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2020, 39(11): 1238-1243. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2020.11.004

油气管道定量风险评价技术发展现状及对策

Development status and countermeasures of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil & gas pipeline

  • 摘要: 油气管道风险评价是完整性管理的核心环节,随着管道完整性管理精细化要求的不断提高,管道风险评价由半定量评价逐步向定量评价转变。通过分析油气管道定量风险评价技术在计算模型、技术标准、软件等方面的发展现状,总结了管道定量风险评价技术存在的主要问题:缺少历史失效数据库、失效后果模型适用性较差、缺乏风险可接受标准及定量风险评价软件等。针对管道定量风险评价的技术瓶颈,提出建立统一的管道失效历史数据库、制定管道定风险评价技术标准以及风险可接受标准等对策,以期为管道定量风险评价技术的进一步发展提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Pipeline risk assessment is the key process of pipeline integrity management. With the continuous improvementof refinement requirements for pipeline integrity management, pipeline risk assessment also transfers from semi-quantitativeassessment to quantitative assessment. Through the analysis on the development status of quantitative risk assessmenttechnology for oil and gas pipeline in terms of calculation model, technical standard and software, the main problems ofcurrent pipeline quantitative risk assessment technology were summarized, including lack of historical failure database, poor application of failure consequence model, lack of acceptable risk criteria and quantitative risk assessment software.Aiming at the existing technical bottlenecks of the pipeline quantitative risk assessment, some countermeasures, such asestablishing uniform pipeline failure history database, formulating technical standards for pipeline risk assessment, anddeveloping acceptable risk criteria, were put forward, which would provide reference for the development of quantitativerisk assessment technology for oil and gas pipelines.

     

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