贺娅娅, 甄莹, 曹宇光. 基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法[J]. 油气储运, 2019, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008
引用本文: 贺娅娅, 甄莹, 曹宇光. 基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法[J]. 油气储运, 2019, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008
HE Yaya, ZHEN Ying, CAO Yuguang. An abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old oil & gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2019, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008
Citation: HE Yaya, ZHEN Ying, CAO Yuguang. An abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old oil & gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2019, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008

基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法

An abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old oil & gas pipelines

  • 摘要: 服役年限较长的老龄油气管道事故频繁,结构安全性低,运维成本高,需要做废弃处理。提出了一种基于失效概率的老龄管道判废方法:广泛调研国内外油气管道事故数据,参考事故频率数据,推荐了管道基本失效概率,以目标管道或同期建设、运营环境相似的管道事故历史数据计算的失效风险概率作为判废评估指标,通过无量纲化的风险系数给出老龄管道废弃指导意见。该方法可实现油气管道定量判废评估,有效解决老龄管道的判废问题。

     

    Abstract: Old oil & gas pipelines which have been in service for a longer time tend to suffer accidents frequently and their structural safety is low with high operating costs, so they shall be treated as the abandonment. In this paper, an abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old pipelines was proposed as follows. Firstly, after the data of oil & gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad are extensively investigated, referring to the data of accident frequency, the basic pipeline failure probability is recommended. Then, the failure probability is calculated based on the historical accident data of the target pipeline or the pipeline with the contemporaneous construction and similar operation environment, and it is used as the evaluation index of abandonment judgment. Finally, the guidance for abandonment of old pipeline is provided by using the dimensionless risk coefficient. By virtue of this method, the quantitative abandonment judgment and evaluation of oil & gas pipeline can realize and the problem related with the abandonment judgment of old pipelines can be solved effectively.

     

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