郭文朋, 周亚薇. 基于改进风险矩阵法的中俄东线高后果区风险评估[J]. 油气储运, 2019, 38(3): 273-278, 284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.005
引用本文: 郭文朋, 周亚薇. 基于改进风险矩阵法的中俄东线高后果区风险评估[J]. 油气储运, 2019, 38(3): 273-278, 284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.005
GUO Wenpeng, ZHOU Yawei. Risk assessment of high consequence areas in China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline Project based on the modified risk matrix method[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2019, 38(3): 273-278, 284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.005
Citation: GUO Wenpeng, ZHOU Yawei. Risk assessment of high consequence areas in China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline Project based on the modified risk matrix method[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2019, 38(3): 273-278, 284. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.005

基于改进风险矩阵法的中俄东线高后果区风险评估

Risk assessment of high consequence areas in China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline Project based on the modified risk matrix method

  • 摘要: 中俄东线天然气管道工程(黑河-长岭段)干线(简称中俄东线)是中国首条直径1422mm、X80M的大口径、高钢级输气管道,其沿线高后果区数量多、情况复杂且缺少可借鉴的工程数据。为了准确评价中俄东线风险,提出了一种改进的风险矩阵法,其采用定量分析方法确定了黑河-长岭段干线18个高后果区的失效可能性和失效后果等级,进而结合风险矩阵明确了中俄东线既定路由高后果区的风险等级为I~Ⅱ级,风险水平可以接受,论证了目前管道路由的合理性。

     

    Abstract: The trunk line of China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline Project (Heihe-Changling section, China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline for short) is the first gas pipeline with large diameter (OD 1 422 mm) and high steel grade (X80M) in China. There are many high consequence areas and complicated conditions along the pipeline. Therefore, no engineering data can be used as the reference for the China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline which adopts new materials and new processes. In order to assess the risk of the pipeline accurately, a modified risk matrix analysis method was proposed. In this method, the quantitative analysis method was adopted to determine the failure probability and failure consequence levels of 18 high consequence areas along the Heihe-Changling trunk line. Furthermore, based ont the risk matrix, the risk levels of the high consequences areas along the established route of China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline were determined to be I-II. The riks of the pipeline is acceptable, and the current route was demostrated to be rational and feasible.

     

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