公维龙, 张志方, 成渊朝, 师书勤, 罗天宝, 相璟瑞. 西气东输改扩建工程经济输量界限的影响因素[J]. 油气储运, 2018, 37(8): 878-884. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2018.08.006
引用本文: 公维龙, 张志方, 成渊朝, 师书勤, 罗天宝, 相璟瑞. 西气东输改扩建工程经济输量界限的影响因素[J]. 油气储运, 2018, 37(8): 878-884. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2018.08.006
GONG Weilong, ZHANG Zhifang, CHENG Yuanchao, SHI Shuqin, LUO Tianbao, XIANG Jingrui. Influencing factors for the economic output limits of West-East Gas Pipeline upgrading and expansion projects[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2018, 37(8): 878-884. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2018.08.006
Citation: GONG Weilong, ZHANG Zhifang, CHENG Yuanchao, SHI Shuqin, LUO Tianbao, XIANG Jingrui. Influencing factors for the economic output limits of West-East Gas Pipeline upgrading and expansion projects[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2018, 37(8): 878-884. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2018.08.006

西气东输改扩建工程经济输量界限的影响因素

Influencing factors for the economic output limits of West-East Gas Pipeline upgrading and expansion projects

  • 摘要: 为满足西气东输下游用户对天然气用气的需求,需对近20座原有站场、干线阀室进行改扩建。鉴于投资计划资金有限,而下游用户需求较大,有必要对各改扩建项目的经济输量进行研究。根据改扩建工程的实际情况,选取影响因变量(经济输量)最大的3个自变量因素(管输费、工程费用及站场定员),借助统计分析软件SPSS,进行多元线性回归分析。结果表明:自变量和因变量之间存在高度线性相关关系,并得到了两者之间的多元线性回归模型。该模型可用于判定改扩建项目的项目建议书和可行性研究阶段的经济评价工作,能够快速预测各种改扩建项目的经济输量,并对其进行排序,为筛选项目、快速决策提供数据支撑和理论依据。

     

    Abstract: To meet the demand for gas consumption by downstream users of West-East Gas Pipeline Company, it is necessary to upgrade and expand about 20 original gas stations and trunk-line stations. However, the planned investment is limited while the demand of the downstream users is great, so it is essential to study the economic output of each upgrading and expansion project. Three independent variables (pipeline transportation price, engineering cost and manpower of the station) which influence the dependent variable (economic output) the most were selected out according to the actual situations of upgrading and expansion engineering. Then, multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted by virtue of the statistical analysis software SPSS. It is shown that there is a highly linear correlation between independent variables and dependent variable and a multivariate linear regression model between them is established. The model is applicable to make upgrading and expansion projects' proposals and the economic evaluation of feasibility study. In this model, the economic output of upgrading and expansion projects can be predicted quickly and ranked. The model provides the data support and theoretical basis for project selection and rapid decision making.

     

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