王晓波, 李诗赞, 代雪云, 张楠. 基于事故树与贝叶斯网络的管道泄漏事故溯源方法[J]. 油气储运, 2017, 36(9): 1013-1018. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.005
引用本文: 王晓波, 李诗赞, 代雪云, 张楠. 基于事故树与贝叶斯网络的管道泄漏事故溯源方法[J]. 油气储运, 2017, 36(9): 1013-1018. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.005
WANG Xiaobo, LI Shizan, DAI Xueyun, ZHANG Nan. A leakage accident tracing method for the oil and gas pipelines based on Fault Tree and Dynamic Bayesian Network[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2017, 36(9): 1013-1018. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.005
Citation: WANG Xiaobo, LI Shizan, DAI Xueyun, ZHANG Nan. A leakage accident tracing method for the oil and gas pipelines based on Fault Tree and Dynamic Bayesian Network[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2017, 36(9): 1013-1018. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.005

基于事故树与贝叶斯网络的管道泄漏事故溯源方法

A leakage accident tracing method for the oil and gas pipelines based on Fault Tree and Dynamic Bayesian Network

  • 摘要: 随着城市快速发展,通讯、热力、油气、供排水等管道相继建设并投入使用,由于规划、管理或部分历史遗留原因使得各管网在地下纵横交错,形成一张巨大的“蜘蛛网”,且无统一有效的管理机构,一旦发生油气管道泄漏,如何快速辨识及事故溯源成为当前安全及应急管理的难点。针对该问题,提出了基于事故树(Fault Tree,FT)与动态贝叶斯网络(Dynamic Bayes Network,DBN)的油气管道事故快速辨识及深度溯源分析方法,充分利用FT建模的简便有效性、DBN反向推理能力及后验概率表达准确性的优势,通过分析城市油气管道泄漏事故可能原因建立相应的事故树,将其转化为DBN模型后融合历史统计数据和多源观测信息进行事故场景快速辨识及溯源分析。分析结果与后期事故调查报告结论一致,表明该方法具有较好的准确性和实用性,能够为事故应急救援、事故调查提供指导。

     

    Abstract: With the fast development of cities, many kinds of pipelines for communication, heat, oil & gas and water transportation are constructed and put into operation. Due to planning, management and partial historical reasons, various pipeline networks cross with each other underground and a huge "spider web" is formed. However, there is no effective unified management organization. Therefore, the difficulty of safety and emergency management in the case of oil and gas pipeline leakage is how to identify and trace accident causes quickly. To solve this problem, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) based quick identification and in-depth tracing analysis method for oil and gas pipeline accidents was proposed. This method makes full use of the convenience and effectiveness of FT modeling, the reverse inference capacity and the accurate expression of posterior probability of DBN. Then, the fault tree was correspondingly established by analyzing the potential reasons for the leakage of urban oil and gas pipelines. And after it was transformed into DBN model, historical statistical data and multi-source observation information were integrated for the quick identification of accident scene and the tracing of accident cause. The accident analysis results are in line with the later accident investigation conclusions. It is indicated that this method can be used as the guide for accident emergency rescue and accident investigation because of its better accuracy and practicability.

     

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